Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Indiana Pacers/Atlanta Hawks Over 241 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
This number has been flying up since the open on account of Indiana being on a back-to-back and Atlanta’s recent style overhaul. That line movement is probably a good indication that Trae Young will be able to go tonight, but monitor his questionable designation just in case. The key here for me is the Pacers having played last night in Boston, as they’re 9-4 to the over with a plus-4.9 average margin when they play on no rest.
I don’t think you’ll find Atlanta taking pity on them, and the Hawks will look to push tempo at the frenetic pace they’ve adopted the past month. It’s led Atlanta’s games to average 244.7 points and go 9-5 over tonight’s total since Nate McMillan was let go. But Indiana is also a top-10 team in tempo, and have plenty of offensive firepower with Tyrese Haliburton back healthy. But on no rest, in an afternoon game, and with Indiana headed home after the game, I expect a rec league game to break out and reward all the over steam.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Denver Nuggets 1st Quarter Over 58 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBATV
I expected to see this number at 60 or above, so I’m jumping on the over. It’s a game between two extremely capable offenses, who happen to love starting fast. Denver still leads the league in first-quarter scoring, both overall and at home, while Milwaukee is fourth overall. The past five games for each team have seen them combine to average 62.5 points in first quarters, and that honestly seems like a more reasonable total here.
Milwaukee also enters on a back-to-back after a high possessions game in Utah last night. Consecutive games at elevation should weaken what is usually an excellent Bucks defense, especially against the efficiency monster of Denver’s offense. The most curious part of this line is that it’s so low relative to the high game total of 236 points. First quarter totals are usually inflated above 25% of the full-game number, especially with teams like this, so I have to take a shot with the apparent discount.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz/Sacramento Kings Over 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Speaking of teams on a back-to-back, this game finds both squads in that situation. Sacramento is a strong 9-4 to the over on no rest, while Utah is right there with them at 8-5 to the over, but that’s just one of the situational splits that scream over here.
Utah is the best over bet in general this season, and these teams are 1st and 2nd in average margin to the total. The Kings are also the best home over team, while Utah is second in overs on the road, including a very profitable 18-8-1 as a road underdog.
These teams have combined to average 243.7 PPG in their 3 meetings this season, including 248 on Monday with several key players out for the Jazz. I’m guessing the Kings will be looking to avenge that loss and won’t take it easy on Utah, but their league-worst home defense won’t stop anything either. Both teams have a day off tomorrow, so look for defense to be very optional tonight.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) Florida Atlantic vs Kansas St -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:10 PM CT on TBS
This line is almost suspiciously short, but there are several factors getting me to back Kansas State tonight. The first is probably most important, and it ends up mattering every year, which is the fact that Kansas State is by far the more battle-tested team. Florida Atlantic had a great season, but they did it against very weak competition and nothing close to Big12 talent. FAU didn’t even face a tournament team until their first round game, and have honestly snuck past some suspect competition to get here.
The next key is the presence of dynamic guard play, which also matters every March, and Markquis Nowell has been eerily reminiscent of Kemba Walker in this tournament. You really can’t go against a team with that kind of magic happening in their backcourt, especially with him playing at MSG in front of hometown fans. Lastly, and this shocked me to see, but the Wildcats are 17-0 straight up this season when favored, which is important with such a short number. I think they get it done again as the Big12 talent and experience shines through.
NCAA Tournament (0.75 Unit) UConn/Gonzaga Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:50 PM CT on TBS
When Gonzaga’s thrilling win over UCLA ended on Thursday night, a thought popped into my head that the total for this game should be set at 155 and it wouldn’t be high enough. Well it opened at 150.5, was immediately bet up to here, and I don’t think it’s high enough. There’s firepower all over the court in this game, with excellent post scorers on both teams and future pros in both backcourts.
It also helps that UConn is making everything right now, posting a ridiculous 1.200 points-per-possession mark and 61.8% effective field goal rate in the tournament. For context, Gonzaga as the nation’s best offense posted 1.174 PPP and 54.8% in those categories on the season. The Zags defense that has allowed 75.7 PPG in the tournament will struggle to stop such a hot offense. I think that leads to a game played in the 80’s, especially with desperation fouling ramped up given the stakes, so I like the over here.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Gonzaga +2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I’ve spent the better part of March giving out Gonzaga on my podcast and TV as the team to watch out for in the tournament. Consequently, I’m married to that opinion at this stage regardless of matchup or number. PSA for the kids out there, don’t try that at home, you stay in school. But I’m staying on the Gonzaga train to the bitter end, and in a game I expect to be a shootout I’ll take the country’s best offense and a couple of points.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1171-1012 ATS (+77.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.