Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Charlotte Hornets Under 223.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
The Cavaliers are always going to pride themselves on defense, and that typically translates to unders cashing in their games. Charlotte also trends to the under with the NBA’s third-best under record, but it’s thanks to their usually incompetent offense without LaMelo Ball. Since his season-ending injury the Hornets have scored just 103.8 PPG and gone 6-1 under tonight’s total.
That includes Sunday’s meeting with Cleveland, who looked a little shaky defensively at times. I’d expect them to clean that up tonight and hold Charlotte to another weak offensive output. Cleveland’s league-low pace of play will also factor in tonight with impending travel back home to face the Sixers tomorrow night. A slow game with plenty of offensive ineptitude should be the recipe for a comfortable under.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 @ Phoenix Suns (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBATV
It’s a tough spot for both teams here as they’re on back-to-backs with travel, and that usually means rest for key players in today’s NBA. But the least likely key player to sit out tonight might be Giannis Antetokounmpo, who already missed several games recently with a wrist issue. If he’s able to go for Milwaukee, that gives them a significant edge tonight in Phoenix. The Bucks are also the league’s best bet on no rest, owning an 8-0-1 ATS mark with a plus-6.4 average cover margin.
Giannis showed exactly what he’s capable of against poor defense with a 46-point effort last night. The Suns certainly have a better defense than Sacramento, but after a tough game against Golden State it will be extremely difficult to deal with the style Milwaukee plays behind Giannis. That Suns defense has been leaky recently though, allowing 123 and 128 the past two games, so relatively full participation by the Bucks roster should earn them the victory here.
NCAA Tournament (0.25 Unit) SE Missouri St/Texas A&M-CC Over 156 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on truTV
This number has been on the rise since Sunday, and while it’s reaching the limit of where I’d play it, we’re not there yet. There are plenty of factors in this First Four matchup that should equate to points, but chief among them has to be pace. Southeast Missouri State absolutely loves to run, ranked 7th in adjusted tempo by KenPom metrics. And Corpus Christi ranks 57th in possessions per game, so they have no concerns about an up-tempo game.
This should also be a free-throw fest, as both teams love to get to the rim with their guards, and Corpus Christi wants to bully teams with their interior size. SEMO has a severe fouling problem too, committing the 4th-most fouls per game and 22nd-most per defensive possession. Corpus Christi shoots the 2nd-best percentage from the line in the whole country, so those easy points are really going to raise offensive efficiency here. No Terrion Murdix for the Islanders hurts, but they’ll also miss his defense against the excellent SEMO guards, so I see plenty more offense than defense tonight.
Degenerates
NIT Tournament Toledo/Michigan Over 162 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
It’s the first round of the NIT, where disappointment about missing out on the big dance reigns supreme. That has a tendency to create a style of game where the teams are much more interested in having fun. And when you put two offenses with the explosive potential of these squads together, it can light up the scoreboard.
Especially Toledo, whose elite shooting ability from everywhere on the floor and particularly from deep will pile up the points. Michigan’s three-point defense hasn’t been challenged much at all this season, but it definitely will tonight. I also see the Wolverines scoring at will against a Rockets team that can point to defensive rebounding as the reason they’re in the NIT. Hunter Dickinson should have a massive game, and those easy points inside will boost scoring and carry this game over the total.
Tiny Nick is 1150-987 ATS (+79.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.