Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports North
It’s about time Edwards had a good game against his hometown team. He has struggled against them in the previous four meetings, totaling just 57 points, but this needs to be the spot he breaks through. With Atlanta playing much faster with much less focus on defense lately, Ant should have plenty of opportunity. And the game total tonight sitting at 244.5 says we’re in for plenty of points, yet this is a fairly standard points prop for Edwards. I’m seeing value on his over as a result, and expect him to have a third straight 30-plus point performance.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks @ Sacramento Kings +2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Quite a lot here depends on the status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, but right now this line is acting like his questionable designation is leaning towards him being out. That would be a big help for a Sacramento defense that’s still one of the worst in the league. But the Kings just refuse to catch the regression that is expected for them, and the result is lines like this one. If they can remain absolutely on fire, then a good Milwaukee three-point defense won’t matter. With the way they’ve been shooting at home all season, I’ll take the points with the Kings as long as Greek Freak remains out.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Bucks/Kings Over 244.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I saw one metrics site project this game to hit 265.6 points, which actually isn’t that crazy for how Sacramento has been playing. The problem here is Milwaukee’s tendency to play lower-scoring road games, but if they feel like going wild against this truly awful defense, then that projection isn’t going to seem very crazy at all.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1148-987 ATS (+78.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.