Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Portland Trail Blazers Over 227 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

This total has been steaming up and with good reason. This Toronto team is going to continue playing no defense on the road, as they’re 28th in defensive efficiency away from home. With Portland expected to get some of their starters back tonight, they should take advantage of such an awful defense. The Blazers have been playing much more up-tempo in recent games as well, including last night in a game that soared over the total. With no rest for Portland and no defense for the Raptors, I think this is a good spot to take advantage of a number held down by Portland’s season-long profile.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Northern Iowa/Indiana State Under 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN

I cannot believe this run of Arch Madness unders. Historically it’s been around a 60% trend, but this year it’s 7-1 so far with the lone over coming in double overtime. Nobody can seem to find the range at the Enterprise Center, and I’m not sure they will today either.

This total opened at a ludicrously high number of 154, right on the metrics projections that aren’t accounting enough for the venue. The market quickly corrected that number with a precipitous drop down to here, but this is still below the regular season result between the Sycamores and Panthers that fell 143 a couple months ago.

These are excellent offenses, but better defensive teams than they get credit for. And Indiana State’s style of taking a ton of three’s probably suffers most in the difficult shooting venue, showing yesterday as they shot well below their season average. With a trip to the MVC title game on the line and the Sycamores having no margin for error as a bubble team, defense and missed shots should be the story again here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kansas @ Houston -4.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN

This is one of the shortest first half numbers you’ll ever see for the country’s best first half team. The Cougars look to close the regular season as the best in first half margin both overall and at home, and this revenge spot should be perfect for them to do it. One of Houston’s three losses this season came at Kansas when the Jayhawks simply couldn’t miss, torching the country’s best defense with 68.9% shooting. If you think that’s going to happen again, much less in the Fertitta Center, then I can’t help you. The big issue for the Cougars right now is injuries impacting their depth, but in the first half of a hyped home spot with revenge on their minds, I think Houston rolls early.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Kentucky/Tennessee Over 166.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on CBS

A lesson this season has been when a total opens sky-high like this one, and gets bet to the over, it’s going over. I expected this total to open closer to 170, which still wouldn’t be anywhere near the barnburner that the first meeting was, reaching 195 points on high pace and elite three-point shooting.

Those elements aren’t going away today, as both offenses are capable of erupting in any game. And this is a new-look Tennessee team, shedding their usual slow pace for the country’s 25th-shortest offensive possession length. The Volunteers are an elite defensive team, but there are a couple factors that could see that defense struggle today.

First off it’s senior day, which always causes some lapses in focus, and the Vols already locked up the SEC title so their effort might not be all there. But it doesn’t take much to score at will on this Kentucky defense, which Tennessee has already proven capable of doing. With the Wildcats on absolute fire right now, look for these teams to get up and down the floor all game to justify the line move here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Colorado State Team Total Over 72 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on MW Network

I’m sure Colorado State would love to go back in time to early in the season when they rose to as high as 13th in the AP Poll instead of being the bubble team they are now. But today is an opportunity for them to make up for some of that lost time by smashing in-state rival Air Force whose defense can be exploited by anyone.

The Falcons have allowed 76.4 PPG in conference play, only holding opponents under this team total four times. The Rams still have one of the best shooting offenses in the country, especially inside the arc at 10th in two-point shooting, and that’s where Air Force allows opponents to get whatever they want. I see CSU trying to make up for their current 2-6 run by running it up today, so look for Air Force to surrender another high points output.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Georgia @ Auburn -15.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on SEC Network

When this Auburn team wants to step on someone, watch out. In this final game of the season, with the Tigers jockeying for SEC tournament seeding, I expect them to bring a full effort. That’s bad news for Georgia who already got run out of their own gym by 21 when Auburn visited two weeks ago. I see a similar result today for a Bulldogs team that just isn’t good at anything.

They’re just a below-average team, and that’s not going to cut it against a Tigers squad that will lock them down defensively. Auburn has the best effective field goal defense in the country, and loves to use it to suffocate outmatched offenses. Auburn is 7-1 ATS in conference home games as a result, and I see another coming today.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Little Rock vs Morehead State -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I think this is a bad matchup for a Little Rock team that has skated by and gotten overinflated off a very weak schedule. It’s fascinating that the Trojans have not played a Quad 1 game all season long, facing the country’s 5th-easiest schedule along the way. That’s how you win 10 games in a row, including beating Morehead by one point on your own floor in a game the Trojans coughed up a 14-point lead.

Morehead is just too good defensively to not get their revenge on Little Rock in this OVC title game. The Eagles are a top-10 effective field goal defense, and 20th in opponent two-point percentage which neutralizes a Trojans offense that lives inside the arc. Morehead also found the range from three in last night’s semifinal, and if those shots continue dropping they’ll be impossible for a weaker Little Rock team to beat.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UM Kansas City Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Summit League Network

Watch out for this UMKC team in a wide-open Summit League, as the Kangaroos have the shooting to make a surprise run. I think they show that right away tonight against one of the worst defenses in the country. Denver is 358th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 356th in effective field goal defense, and most importantly here just 352nd in three-point defense.

The Kangaroos love to fire from deep, and should have plenty of success against that bad defense which they’ve already torched for 85 and 84 points this season. That’s not unusual for Denver who has allowed 85.1 PPG in Summit play this season, allowing opponents to go 13-3 over this team total. With the likelihood of desperation fouling also padding points, look for the Roos to clear this with ease once again.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UNLV +6.5 @ Nevada (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on CBSSN

UNLV might be the hottest team in the country right now, still somehow flying under the radar, and I think catching too many points here. This in-state rivalry game with a fairly low total creates a lot of natural value on the dog, and the Rebels are also in a revenge spot here. Nevada beat them in Vegas three weeks ago by three points, part of their own red-hot run down the stretch of the season. But Nevada doesn’t match up that well with UNLV and their length on the perimeter, plus the Rebels aren’t foul-prone enough to reward a Wolfpack team that tries to live at the line. This should be a slow-paced defensive battle, and I want the red-hot underdog catching a full two possessions of points.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2114-1906 ATS (+103.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.