Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Sacramento Kings/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 224.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Keep an eye on the statuses of De’Aaron Fox and Anthony Edwards tonight, as both have questionable tags on them. If one or both miss this game the total should drop significantly, and I’d be completely in agreement.
The two previous meetings were very different, with 235 and 208 total points, but the higher-scoring one was the result of Sacramento not missing from deep. The Wolves showed they can hold the Kings in check from long range in the second meeting, and Sacramento’s three-point percentage is very pedestrian in road games.
The Wolves play such great defense in Target Center that I’d expect another strong effort in this budding rivalry. They own the best home defensive efficiency mark in the league, and a 17-10-1 mark to the under with the second-lowest plus/minus to the total as a result. These teams have certainly done their part for this post-break unders trend, staying under this number in 6 of their 8 combined games, and I think another comes tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Memphis Grizzlies Under 208.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Who’s excited for some G League action in this one? That’s more or less what these rosters are right now, and the injury reports for both teams look like CVS receipts. So a total that reminds me of the NBA from 10-12 years ago is fully justified, as we have two anemic offenses squaring off.
These are the two worst teams for scoring, shooting percentage, and offensive rating in the league, plus they both play at fairly slow tempos. Memphis is the one who puts some effort in on defense, but it won’t take much for the Blazers to guard the roster of no-names for the Grizzlies tonight. These teams played twice in early November when they were much healthier, going to OT in the first meeting with 204 points, and then hitting 212 in the rematch. I just don’t see how they meet or exceed those outputs in what should be disgusting basketball.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Clippers First Half Team Total Over 65.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SC
There aren’t many teams less interested in defense than the Wizards are on a given night. Now put them on a back-to-back after an overtime game last night, maybe mix in a little “LA flu”, and you have a recipe for the Clippers to get whatever they want here. After blowing the game to the Lakers on Wednesday, a game in which they put up 66 before halftime, I’d also expect LA to be in a foul mood here and looking to take it out on someone. The Clippers have dominated this Wizards team before, putting 66 on them in the first half when they met in DC. So look for extra motivation and even worse defense from Washington to help the Clips over this isolated number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arkansas State @ Appalachian State -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN+
You can ask Auburn, the 6th-ranked team in KenPom, about App State – this team is tough and does not mess around. The Mountaineers took Auburn down early in the season before this domination of the Sun Belt they’ve put on display, and I think they close with a statement here. While Arkansas State is no pushover, they’ve dominated a weak recent schedule that makes it easy to forget their struggles against the top-tier teams in this league.
The Red Wolves have trouble slowing teams down inside the arc, and that’s where App State lives. The Mountaineers also have one of the best shooting defenses in the country, helping them to double-digit wins in all but two conference home games. I think they shut down an overvalued Arkansas State team here for a convincing win on senior night.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Dartmouth/Yale First Half Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’ve been following this trend with Dartmouth for a while now, and I’m going back to it again tonight. The Big Green are terrible offensively, there’s no two ways about it, but they’ve been sneaky in first halves for some reason.
In five of their eleven Ivy League games, Dartmouth has scored more points in the first half than in the second half, a completely backwards stat in college basketball. That has caused their first halves to go 9-2 over this total with 68.8 points on average, including 66 in the first meeting with Yale who happens to be 10-1 over this total in Ivy play.
The Bulldogs have a pretty decent offense so they should do their part here, but they also struggle against the three which Dartmouth takes a ton of, so expect some contribution from the Big Green. Since this Dartmouth team is so bad offensively their totals are depressed, and so are the first half totals by an extra factor. I think that creates another opportunity for higher scoring than expected early on tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Utah State Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FS1
I haven’t seen a single metrics site project less than 78 points for Utah State in this game that should set up well for them. The Aggies are in need of statement wins in the competitive Mountain West, and this is the perfect soft opponent to get one against. Air Force can’t guard much of anything, ranking 309th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 333rd in effective field goal defense.
They’re also pretty weak inside, susceptible to dominant post players, which is what Utah State has in Great Osobor. This is why Utah State dropped 88 on the Falcons in the first meeting, and could easily replicate that tonight. I think they make that statement on national TV here, so look for their excellent interior scoring to pile up the points tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2092-1887 ATS (+102.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.