Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Detroit Pistons First Quarter Over 60.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

Detroit’s offense has made such strides in recent weeks that they’re now up to 8th in first quarter scoring. Put them together with this Nuggets team that is 3rd in first quarter points per game and I think this has a chance to get wild early. Add in that Denver is still dead last in first quarter points allowed, and it’s easy to see why the first meeting between these squads hit 74 points after a quarter.

Detroit is still just an average defense though, and facing the league’s best shooting team will challenge them more than their past couple opponents have. The Nuggets are also on no rest here, so tired defensive legs for them should help even more with getting this early total cleared.

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics First Quarter Under 57 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

It’s easy to look at these two teams and see the league’s highest-scoring first quarter team in Cleveland, and the 5th-highest in Boston. But don’t overlook the fact that they’re 2nd and 4th, respectively, in first quarter points allowed, and it’s been defense that has characterized the previous meetings. The Cavs and Celtics have already met three times this season, going under this first quarter total each time while averaging just 47.0 points.

The Boston defense has been Cleveland’s kryptonite, holding the Cavs to 21.0 first quarter points which is a severe drop-off for a team with such a prolific early-game offense. This matchup has Eastern Conference Finals written all over it, and I think those stakes help with defensive effort to keep this first quarter under again.

NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks/Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Over 62.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on MSG

The handicap here is simple: if Karl-Anthony Towns is playing tonight, this first quarter is going over. So be sure to monitor his status heading into tonight’s game, as he’s the key to this Knicks offense. With KAT in the lineup New York is dynamic offensively, and basically lost without him as we’ve seen in his absences. Even against a Memphis team that’s allowing 30.3 first quarter points in home games, KAT is essential to the Knicks exploiting that defense.

I definitely don’t think see the Knicks stopping the Grizzlies early in this game with Memphis leading the league in first quarter scoring at home, and their league-leading tempo is likely to bother New York as well. So keep an eye on the injury report today and look for this to be an early shootout if Towns is a go tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Dartmouth Team Total Over 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Nobody in the Ivy League is hotter than Yale who has rolled through conference play unscathed, but Dartmouth is worthy of a lot of recognition. They were horrific last season, so to be 7-4 in league play so far is a massive turnaround.

The offense deserves a lot of the credit, as the Big Green are averaging 77.8 PPG in Ivy games and are 9-2 over this team total. One of those two games they didn’t get past this number came on the road at Yale, where both teams actually shot poorly but Dartmouth in particular had a terrible night from deep. Three’s are what they live on, getting the 15th-highest percentage of their points via the long ball in the country.

So it’s a big outlier performance for them to only score 67 points against Yale in that first game since the Bulldogs allow the 3rd-highest percentage of their opponents points to come via the three. With Dartmouth pushing pace on their own floor at the country’s 22nd-fastest adjusted tempo, and shooting much better at home, I see mean reversion carrying the Big Green over this team total today.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Davidson @ VCU -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I love this VCU team that has all the pieces, and the committee better have them in the dance regardless of what happens in the always wild A10 tournament. But the Rams seem to understand the assignment of leaving no doubt, as they’re decimating conference opponents, especially at home. The Rams are 12-4 ATS at home this season, including 6-1-1 against this particular number in A10 home games.

They seem to revel in destroying all visitors to the Siegel Center, taking their past 4 opponents to the wood shed by margins of 16, 29, 30, and 41 points. With Davidson having a down year by their standards, I think another blowout is likely here. The Wildcats can’t guard the three, and VCU is always on fire in their own building where they live on the three-point line. Add in the angle of motivation as the Rams look to cement their place in the field next month and I think this one could get out of hand.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Manhattan/Canisius Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

There aren’t many teams in the country that are worse than Canisius, ranked 355th in KenPom, but you have to respect their effort and their offense. The Golden Griffins don’t quit, and they’ve gotten some key contributors back from injury to bolster what is actually a sneaky-good offense. They take a ton of three’s and are actually one of the best at hitting them in the whole country, ranked 27th in three-point percentage.

Canisius should have plenty of success from deep on their home floor against a Manhattan team ranked 323rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and giving up a lot of production via the three. But Canisius will not stop anything, as this is the country’s 3rd-worst defense by adjusted defensive efficiency and 5th-worst by effective field goal defense. Manhattan is an above-average offense and can shoot from deep, so I see plenty of points coming thanks to two awful defenses squaring off.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Rider/Merrimack Under 129.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This total has been ticking down from the opener as two horrible offenses that play at a crawl get together. Both Rider and Merrimack sit outside the top-300 in adjusted offensive efficiency as well as adjusted tempo, so points should be tough to find in this one. Rider in particular simply can’t shoot, ranked 334th in effective field goal rate, and barely even try to shoot from deep. But the Merrimack defense is excellent inside and they also force turnovers at the country’s 9th-best rate, so plenty of Rider’s possessions will be disrupted. Merrimack has actually never cashed an over at home this season going 11-0 to the under, and I see another here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UCLA Team Total Over 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

I think Purdue would like Zach Edey back. The Boilermakers defense is getting eaten alive down low in recent games as they seem to have lost all rim protection, and I think it continues to hurt them here. UCLA has the size to get plenty of interior looks tonight, as they’re actually the team with the 7’3” monster in Aday Mara. The Bruins don’t have much for perimeter shooters though, so they should focus on getting inside against the country’s 338th-ranked two-point percentage defense.

Purdue was never going to be an elite defensive club this season, and it has shown in conference play with them allowing 70.5 PPG in Big10 games. That includes allowing 8 of their past 9 opponents to clear this team total while giving up 75.9 PPG in that stretch. This is a low number thanks to UCLA being extremely high-variance offensively this season, but until Purdue proves they can protect the rim, I’ll be looking to fade them like this.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +67.2 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.