Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/LA Lakers Over 227.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 9:30 PM CT on NBA TV

This total has been flying up from the opener of 224, but it’s just an acknowledgement of how the Wolves have been playing lately. This is a fun team when the offense is clicking, and that’s been the case for the majority of the past month. Three’s have been dropping for Minnesota, and that will need to continue to get over this total against a Lakers defense that has played surprisingly well with Luka Doncic now in the fold.

I’m suspicious of that being able to continue though, especially against a quality offense like what the Wolves are putting forth lately. These teams have better offenses than their surface metrics would suggest, and the other meetings this season have only averaged 195.3 points, so that creates a discount in this number and I’m rolling with the smart money that’s driving the total up.

NBA (1 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks -6 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE

Neither of these teams is in a good place right now, mostly of their own making, but it’s Charlotte that might be on one of those legendary play-against runs. I’m sticking with the angle of going against the Hornets in the first half for this road trip which concludes tonight, as they’ve done nothing but make their league-worst average first half margin even worse lately.

This road trip of theirs started before the All-Star break, and in these 8 road games they’ve trailed by at least this margin 7 times with an average halftime deficit of 14.6 points. They’re now averaging a minus-9.1 first half margin on the season, and I just don’t see how it gets any better here. This is a discounted price thanks to Dallas being somewhat in shambles, but the Mavs had actually been playing well at home after “the trade”. They should be happy to have Tuesday’s game at LA behind them and ready to beat up on a team that everyone runs out, which I think starts right away tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Le Moyne @ Central Connecticut -12.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on NEC Front Row

I don’t know what’s going on with this number and why it isn’t on the move in favor of Central Connecticut. Maybe the game is too far off the radar, but I think this spread should be several points higher than it is. This is Central Connecticut’s league, and one of the worst teams in the country is not going to be competitive on the road, not after the Blue Devils already won by 23 on the road in the first meeting.

That first meeting highlighted the matchup advantage CCSU has over Le Moyne, as the Dolphins try to boost their weak offense by getting to the line. But CCSU has the second-lowest foul rate in the country and allows the least amount of free throw production, holding Le Moyne to just 9 free throw attempts in the first game. Central’s two-point-heavy offense should also be able to get to the hoop with ease against the country’s 6th-worst team by adjusted defensive efficiency, and I see that all adding up to another blowout of one of the country’s worst ATS teams.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Pepperdine/Portland First Half Over 74 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This one is all about the defenses of these squads and how awful they’ve been to start games. Pepperdine ranks 246th and Portland 322nd in adjusted defensive efficiency so neither shines on that end of the court, but it’s the early defensive numbers that I’m focused on here. The Waves sit at 320th and the Pilots 342nd in first half points allowed, simply allowing every opponent to go right through them in the opening half.

These teams play relatively up-tempo styles and don’t force turnovers on defense, so possession efficiency should be maximized. It was in the first meeting when they combined for 88 first half points in a game that actually cashed the under. But tonight’s full-game total being significantly higher than that first meeting shows the potential for points when these awful defenses meet up, and I see them coming in bunches before halftime.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +70.4 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.