Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota/Iowa Over 150.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

Let’s not pretend that the Gophers are some high-flying offensive team that can hang with Iowa on that end of the floor. That’s not what this squad will ever be as it’s currently constructed, but they only need to continue to build off recent momentum to exploit Iowa’s defense.

The Hawkeyes just suffered two embarrassing losses out in LA over the weekend, allowing 99 and 94 points to two offenses that aren’t particularly elite. So they’ll be in a bad mood and should hang a big number here, especially if the three’s are dropping against a weak Minnesota perimeter defense.

But Fran McCaffrey will never change, so Iowa will fly up and down the floor like they always do in home games. That also means their defense leaves the lane wide open, and a Gophers team that has shown improvement in their interior scoring should find plenty of buckets against the country’s 334th-ranked two-point defense. I don’t think Minnesota will be able to slow the pace on the road here, so an up-tempo game with vulnerable defenses tells me we’re getting over a moderate total by today’s standards.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Butler @ UConn -7 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on FS1

UConn took an ugly home loss on Saturday, their second in the last three games, so if I know Dan Hurley he’ll have this team raring to go tonight. It helps that an outmatched opponent is coming to Storrs, as Butler should have no answer for the Huskies if they’re motivated here. UConn already handled the Bulldogs this season, leading by 9 at halftime in their meeting at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

But that tightened to just a 4-point winning margin for UConn due to key starters in foul trouble for a lot of the game, and I think that result is holding down tonight’s numbers somewhat. A bounce back spot on national TV should be perfect for Hurley to motivate his squad, and I see them shredding a struggling Butler team right away tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Ohio St @ Purdue -5.5 First Half (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Peacock

I can understand why Ohio State is rated so highly by metrics sites since they fight hard and have a couple of impressive wins. But they don’t tend to start games well, and that’s going to cost them in this situation. They’re particularly slow starters on the road, averaging a minus-10.3 average first half margin in road games, so going up against a Purdue squad that averages a plus-11.4 first half margin at home will be a challenge.

The Buckeyes have really struggled early against the class of the Big10, although they’ve closed big deficits late to make their losses look better, hiding the disadvantage they have before halftime. Purdue is really starting to find themselves on both ends of the floor in recent weeks, and I don’t think they’ll have any trouble building another big early lead tonight.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Washington/Oregon Under 147.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on BTN

There are two quietly excellent defenses meeting in this game, and I think it keeps this one under a total that I was surprised to see in this range. Both Washington and Oregon have strong defenses by adjusted efficiency, and Oregon in particular should be able to shut down a weak Washington offense. But the Huskies are elite in defending the perimeter, ranked 11th in opponent three-point percentage and allowing the lowest percentage of points via the three in the country.

Neutralizing the three-point shooting of Oregon stars Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy is key in slowing the Ducks down, and Washington is uniquely suited to doing it. But Washington really struggles from the floor, and is averaging just 65.4 PPG in conference play. They’re up against an Oregon team that will be looking to bounce back from a big home loss over the weekend, and I think the Ducks defense responds to hold the Huskies down and keep this under the total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +72.9 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.