Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Notre Dame vs Ohio State -2.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

All credit to the Ohio State coaching staff for hitting the eff-it button after their loss to Michigan to close the regular season. The Buckeyes decided that if they were going down, it would happen while being ultra-aggressive, which turned into a winning strategy for them.

In all three of their CFP games, Ohio State has taken their first possession and turned it into a touchdown, creating first quarter leads of 21, 14, and 7 points, all while the defense pitched three shutouts in the opening quarters. I expect that philosophy to continue tonight, and I don’t think there’s anything Notre Dame can do to stop it. This game feels like a significant mismatch to me, and I think it shows right out of the gates.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Notre Dame/Ohio State First Half Under 23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

After that initial success I expect from Ohio State, things might slow down a bit. The Notre Dame defense is extremely good, albeit undersized for this matchup, and Marcus Freeman knows how to make the right adjustments. But the Irish are really going to struggle offensively in this game, as Ohio State is exceptional at shutting down the run game that ND relies on.

As the defensive competition has gotten stiffer in each round of the CFP, the early offense for the Irish has gotten progressively less successful, and this is the final boss. Notre Dame trying futilely to establish the run, while playing man coverage and letting Ohio State chew up yards and clock with short completions, should keep things relatively quiet for the first half of this game.

Bonus CFP Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.75 Unit – Riley Leonard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Emeka Egbuka Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Carnell Tate Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves/Memphis Grizzlies First Half Over 114.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:30 PM CT on TNT

I’m really just going off of the previous meeting where the level of pace and scoring were really surprising. The Grizzlies went into Target Center and turned that game into a track meet where these teams combined for 129 points before halftime. I think books are a little surprised by that result as well, since this total is very moderate for what can happen in Grizzlies games. I think if Memphis was able to dictate tempo to their league-leading pace on the road, then they should be able to do it at home today, especially in this matinee game. The three’s should be flying in this one, and if they’re connecting early we should see plenty of points before halftime.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Suns/Cleveland Cavaliers First Half Over 115.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports OH

I’m very surprised to see this first half total significantly less than half of the full game number. That’s just not how Suns games have been going recently, and it’s not placing enough emphasis on Cleveland’s style of play either. Phoenix has been lighting it up in first halves recently, with their past 5 games all going over this number with ease and averaging 121.6 points before halftime.

And all of those games for the Suns were against competition nowhere near the level of offensive firepower Cleveland brings to the table. The Cavaliers lead the league in first half scoring in home games with a ridiculous 64.7 per game. And with Evan Mobley out today, this becomes an even more perimeter-oriented game for the Cavs who should take advantage of a below-average Suns three-point defense. This first half should produce fireworks, so I’m jumping on what I see as a highly discounted number.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Columbia/Princeton Over 153.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on ESPN+

This should be an entertaining game with lots of pace and a high volume of three-pointers, basically the perfect recipe for an over. Both Columbia and Princeton are relatively up-tempo teams in general, and facing each other should ramp that up a little bit. Both can really shoot it too, especially Columbia who ranks 12th nationally in effective field goal percentage.

Both squads are also highly reliant on the three-ball, and they’re both shooting it from deep at percentages that are top-35 in the country. Defense is an issue though, especially on the perimeter, and especially for Columbia who checks in at 340th in opponent three-point percentage. So with plenty of shots falling and an up-tempo game, look for the smart kids to find their way over the total this afternoon.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick has gained +74.5 Units on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.