Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Vikings/Philadelphia Eagles Under 49.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
Despite this total actually rising a bit, you just can’t talk me out of taking the under in primetime. Those games went 3-0 to the under in Week 1 by an average 7.5 point margin, continuing the trend we’ve been seeing for years. Now in the first true Thursday Night Football game of the year where it comes on a short week, I think we see a lower-scoring game again.
Neither offense looked great last week, with the Vikings stymied by a Bucs defense similar to Philly’s, and the Eagles being gifted 13 of their 25 points. Last year’s meeting in a Week 2 primetime game that ended 24-7 should be instructive here, and I see offenses falling short of this high total.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Kirk Cousins Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (+105; Odds via DraftKings)
It might feel counterintuitive to go over on passing props in a game that I feel will be lower-scoring, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Just look at that meeting from last season I mentioned above, where the Vikings only managed one score in a dead under game.
Cousins managed to throw 46 times in that game as Philly stifled the Minnesota run game. I don’t think the Vikings find any success on the ground tonight either, and with Cousins chucking it 44 times last week, this number is too low.
Extra Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each) Jordan Addison Over 40.5 Receiving Yards & TJ Hockenson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
If Cousins is going to throw it all over the yard, there is going to be some yardage success no matter what. I think these second and third-option receivers of the Vikings can benefit the most with Darius Slay shadowing Justin Jefferson, plus some injuries in the Eagles secondary. Philly allowed 92 yards to New England’s tight ends last week, and Addison looked great in his debut, so expect more production from these two here.
Double Extra Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Jalen Carter Over 0.75 Sacks (+190; Odds via DraftKings)
Carter was the best player in the draft this year, and he showed why on Sunday as at times the Patriots needed to triple team him. The Vikings are missing their starting center, and star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable tonight. With Cousins dropping back so many times, opportunity will be there for the excellent Eagles defensive line, and I think Carter benefits.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Navy @ Memphis -14 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
It’s just going to be a long season for Navy in the first year for Brian Newberry as coach. The Midshipmen were demolished by a quality passing offense when Notre Dame put 42 on them with minimal effort.
Memphis isn’t quite on the level of the Irish, but quarterback Seth Henigan can still sling it, and torched Navy last season for 415 yards. Memphis has had a lot of success against Navy in Henigan’s time with the Tigers, beating them 37-13 last year and 35-17 the year before. Navy’s offense was much better in those seasons as well, but a very good Tigers run defense should be ready for the triple option.
It was instructive for me to see Navy try to bounce back from the Notre Dame game, but only beat FCS Wagner by 24 as 42.5-point favorites last week. The Midshipmen just don’t have the talent on either side of the ball right now to compete, and Memphis should pull away easily tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1497-1345 ATS (+67.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.