Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Houston Astros/NY Yankees Over 9 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on AppleTV+
Luis Severino called himself “the worst pitcher in the league” last week after a blow-up start. I know of several others who would like a word, but what does that mean for where his confidence is right now? It’s not just that awful start either, as all of July saw him post a whopping 11.22 ERA. With the Astros at full strength offensively, they should be the next team to knock Severino around tonight.
But I can’t trust Houston’s starter here either, as young Hunter Brown takes the mound. His numbers have slowly but consistently getting worse since late May, and now he makes his first start under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium. I know the Yankees have plenty of issues against right-handed pitching, but with Aaron Judge back in the lineup that can change quickly. They’ll need to get run support to the so-called worst pitcher in the league, and that should be enough to push this game over the total.
Bonus Bets (0.25 Unit Each; Odds via DraftKings) Jose Abreu Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) & Over 0.5 RBI (+175)
Abreu is the Astros hitter that Severino has struggled against the most in his career, as the Houston first baseman has a .438 average and 1.096 OPS in 16 at-bats. He has 3 doubles and 4 RBI in those meetings, and his place in the middle of Houston’s order puts him in good position to keep producing tonight. His prop to get just one hit is wildly juiced at -275, so the hefty plus-money returns here are the best way to back him.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Alex Verdugo Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
When it’s Alek Manoah day, you do whatever you can to find a way to fade him. Nothing in the full-game numbers tonight interests me, but I think Manoah continues to get hit hard, and by one player in particular. Alex Verdugo has a 6-game hitting streak going, and now gets to face Manoah in hitter-friendly Fenway. Verdugo has a career .421 average and 1.134 OPS against Manoah, is hitting righties very well this season in general, and is batting .311 at home. Put that all together and I see the Boston right fielder having enough production here to cash this plus-juice return.
MLB (1.25 Unit) Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 4.5 (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
There was a time a few years ago when the easiest bet in baseball was backing the Brewers to wreck the Pirates. Since that time Pittsburgh has improved slightly and the Brewers aren’t what they used to be, but so far this year Milwaukee has been extremely consistent against the Buccos. They’ve gone over this team total in all 7 meetings, scoring 7.6 runs on average.
After putting up 14 last night when Pittsburgh had their best pitcher going, tonight should continue the trend for the Brew Crew. They’ll face rookie Quinn Priester who has 3 starts under his belt in the majors, allowing 7, 4, and 5 runs. As a righty he puts Milwaukee in their preferred split since they’re awful against lefties, and I see the home team jumping all over a bad pitching staff once again.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Pirates/Brewers Over 9 (-105; Odds via DraftKings)
The expected contribution from the Brewers provides a really nice floor for the full game over, and they might get there on their own like they’ve done twice against the Pirates already this season. But Pittsburgh has some young and dangerous hitters in their lineup, and they’ll face Colin Rea tonight. The righty would not be getting starts if Milwaukee’s rotation was healthy, and his 5.01 ERA at home should allow the Pirates to contribute to this over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1434-1266 ATS (+73.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.