Locks

MLB (0.65 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays First 5 Innings ML @ NY Yankees (-130; Odds via DraftKings): 6:05 PM CT on MLB Network

For the last several baseball seasons, I’ve tried to target teams coming off a loss on Sunday Night Baseball that have to travel and play the next day. It’s a tough situational spot, and I think it has a negative impact on the Yankees tonight. New York is already just middle of the pack when it comes to both scoring and allowing runs across the first 5 innings, and now the scheduling spot should take its toll on them early in this one.

I think that allows Tampa to pounce, especially given their advantage in starting pitching. Tyler Glasnow is the clear choice over Domingo German, especially with the Yankees troubles against right-handed pitching. German is still in regression mode from his asterisk-laden perfect game, and I think the Rays can jump on him tonight. The Rays lead the season series 4-3 overall, but are 5-1-1 in the first 5 innings of those games, and I think they lead early again here.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Domingo German Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+115; Odds via DraftKings)

German has recorded exactly 18 outs in each of his past 3 starts, so that’s why the juice is heavily tilted to the over on this number. But those games brought up his average that still sits at 16.4 outs per game on the season. He also went under this number in both starts against Tampa this season, getting pulled early despite not even pitching poorly. The strength of the Yankee pitching staff is in the bullpen, and they should lean on that today instead of leaving German out there for too long.

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Atlanta Braves Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:20 PM CT on Bally Sports South

The Braves showed over the weekend why they’re playing baseball on easy mode, destroying a very strong Milwaukee pitching staff for 29 runs in 3 games. Their version of home run derby that they’ve been playing at home is incredible, leading to them scoring 7.4 runs per game in the 9 home games since the All-Star break. I don’t think Griffin Canning and the atrocious Angels bullpen will be any impediment to Atlanta continuing to score at will, so the Braves should get theirs here.

I also think the Angels get it together offensively after a series in Toronto where they kept loading the bases but couldn’t bring in the runs. Charlie Morton’s past couple starts are concerning, especially with the walks he’s issuing, so he’s likely to create scoring chances for LA. What’s really cool about this series is it pits the presumptive MVP’s from both leagues against each other, and I think the result tonight is fireworks.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds First 5 Innings ML @ Chicago Cubs (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 7:05 PM CT on Marquee

I just really disagree with how the Cubs are priced in this game against an opponent that has their number. Sure, Chicago is hot after finally having an 8-game win streak snapped yesterday and that’s impacting their pricing. But what do you call the Reds taking 2 of 3 in LA against the Dodgers? On top of their great current form, Cincinnati is also undefeated against the Cubs in the first 5 innings of their 5 meetings so far this season.

I think they make it 6-0 tonight behind their ace Andrew Abbott, who has only had one bad game in his 10 starts this season. Cincy is also 5-2-3 to this number in those 10 starts, so Abbott has been a good bet in the first 5 innings as well. Conversely, Marcus Stroman is really struggling, posting a 7.99 ERA and 1.73 WHIP this month. That adds up to a pitching mismatch in my opinion, and I’ll take a shot on the Reds early in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Reds/Cubs Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I would not be surprised to see Cincinnati do most of the work in getting this game over the total considering Stroman’s issues and a middling bullpen behind him. Stroman’s past 6 starts are 5-1 over this total averaging 11.5 runs, while the season series between these teams is 5-0 to the over with 13 runs on average. With Chicago hitting so well since the All-Star break and their games averaging 11.1 runs, another slugfest could be in store here.

Degenerates

MLB Houston Astros First 5 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 (+130; Odds via PointsBet): 7:10 PM CT on SportsNet SW

As a Twins fan, I’ll take all the help I can get for them to win the division because they’ll need it. So from that standpoint I’m happy to see Cleveland trade for Noah Syndergaard despite it being such a head-scratching move. It’s sad, but Thor just doesn’t have it anymore, and I think he gets knocked around again tonight.

Because of outsized juice on other numbers, this looks like the best way to fade him and back Houston, especially given the hefty return. Scoring 4 runs in the first 5 innings is not easy, but Syndergaard has allowed it to happen in each of his past 3 starts, plus he has a gigantic 10.96 ERA on the road this year. With Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup for Houston, their offense should be at peak performance against a has-been starter.

Tiny Nick is 1426-1257 ATS (+73.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.