Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Francisco Lindor Under 0.5 Hits (+175; Odds via DraftKings): 6:10 PM CT on MLB Network
I was shocked to see this kind of juice on the under for a struggling hitter, which just goes to show you what kind of price you need to pay for backing name brands. That’s what Lindor is in the player prop market, and there’s no way you should fall for it.
The Met shortstop isn’t living up to it though, batting just .230 this year and only recording 6 hits in 47 trips to the plate since the All-Star break. He’s also 0-for-8 lifetime against Nationals starter Josiah Gray with a couple walks. It’s telling that Lindor’s total bases prop is heavily juiced to the under of 1.5 so expectations are low. I just have to jump on the under here given his current form, the matchup, and the juicy return.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Dylan Cease Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+125; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
I’m primarily attracted to another juicy return here, but there are a few factors that I think are important. First and foremost is that Cease does not tend to go what’s considered deep into games, only pitching into the 7th inning in 2 of his 22 starts this season.
For this to cash, Cease will need to be pulled before completing 6 full innings, which has happened in exactly half of his starts. So on something that happens 50% of the time, getting +125 which equates to a 44.4% implied probability is a good basic value proposition.
But I’m also considering that the Guardians hit Cease pretty well, with their lineup owning a cumulative .271 average against the Chicago righty. And with the White Sox trading away Lucas Giolito last night, I’m sure they’ll be extra cautious going forward on the workload for the only elite-level starter they have left. This is a pretty sharp number, but the juice being so tilted has me looking to the under.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Hits (+145; Odds via DraftKings): 6:45 PM CT on MLB Network
I’m really chasing the juice on this one, as it’s difficult for any player to record multiple hits in a game. But Hoerner has been on fire lately, batting .424 with 14 hits in his past 8 games. One of those was a 3-hit game the last time he faced St Louis and starter Miles Mikolas, recording two singles and a double off the Cardinal righty. This Cubs offense is red hot right now and Hoerner is a big factor, so against Mikolas and a sub-par bullpen I like his chances to get multiple hits at this nice return.
WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream Team Total Over 81.5 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on Prime Video
The New York Liberty don’t have very many problems as arguably the league’s second-best team. But they have experienced some issues defensively in recent weeks, and I think those show up again in this game. In their past 10 games, the Liberty have allowed 85.3 PPG, and their past 5 opponents have all gone over this isolated total.
They’re up against an excellent Atlanta offense here that’s averaging 85.0 PPG on the season, and is 2-1 over this total in games against New York this year while averaging 83.0 points. The Dream definitely have the firepower to exploit the recent defensive lapses from New York, and I think they get over this number no matter how the full game result plays out.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1419-1251 ATS (+70.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.