Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Cincinnati Reds Over 11 (-110): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
There actually hasn’t been a number posted for this game at the time of this writing, but I’d definitely bet the over up to 11 here. The delay is due to Arizona scrambling to figure out a starter for today since several members of their rotation have hit the injured list.
Word is Brandon Pfaadt will get the start, and that’s great news for over bettors as he’s had to be called back up from the minors after getting shelled earlier this season. The prolific Reds offense that seems to have pulled themselves out of a short slump is a bad matchup for the meat-balling Pfaadt with all the left-handed power they can line up.
But I’m never discounting what this D’backs offense can do with how locked in they are post All-Star break. Reds starter Brandon Williamson’s 4.96 ERA is actually outperforming his expected metrics, and there are few teams better to inflict regression than the red-hot Arizona bats. After 15 runs last night and more favorable conditions at the hitter-friendly Cincy park, this one might get over any number the books decide to post.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros/Oakland A’s Over 8 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:07 PM CT on NBCS-CA
Because it’s an A’s game in Oakland there’s an automatic discount on this total, but it’s actually a little higher than normal. That’s because of the struggling starters here, especially Cristian Javier for the Astros who even Oakland should get to tonight. Last year’s version of the Houston righty seems long gone, as he’s posted a 12.06 ERA his past 4 starts. Not surprisingly, those games have flown over the total, and his past 12 starts are 11-1 over tonight’s total.
Oakland’s own starter should help with the runs here as well, as Paul Blackburn has a 7.36 ERA in his past 5 starts, and was shelled in his past 2 home outings. The A’s righty has also never pitched more than 6 innings this season, meaning the league-worst Oakland bullpen is in line for some work no matter what. These teams got to 10 runs last night with better starters going, so I’ll take the over on a discounted total.
WNBA (1 Unit) Las Vegas Aces -8 First Half @ Minnesota Lynx (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN
I was wrong about the Aces coming out strong in their first game after the All-Star break. They looked flat and couldn’t shoot, particularly from deep, but they still took an 11-point lead into halftime. I’m hoping they’ve woken up by now, and if so they should hold another big lead over the Lynx by halftime.
In all 3 meetings this season, Las Vegas has held a double-digit lead over Minnesota at half. And in Minnesota’s past 5 losses, all against quality opponents, they’ve trailed by double digits at half with an average 14.2 point deficit. The Aces are simply too dangerous, especially with their shooting likely to see positive regression here, and I think they’ll be rolling over the Lynx at half.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1409-1242 ATS (+70.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.