Locks
MLB (1.5 Unit) Baltimore Orioles/Minnesota Twins First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 1:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Getting to see this Twins team in person last night was eye-opening, and not in a good way. They just don’t have enough major league quality bats to get runners on and generate lots of scoring chances. Until that lineup changes drastically I’m going to be looking for opportunities to take the under in their games, especially with a pitching matchup like this one.
With Sonny Gray going for the Twins, more excellence can be expected from a guy with elite surface metrics and strong deeper numbers as well. He also has plenty of experience with the Orioles, and has only allowed their lineup a cumulative .111 average and .367 OPS. Baltimore starter Tyler Wells has also been impressive this year, particularly his 0.90 WHIP, and has held the Twins lineup to a 0.93 average and .207 OPS. Those strong starters should keep this one low-scoring in the first 5 innings.
MLB (1.5 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on FS1
Yesterday exemplified the biggest liability for this Reds team, and in a very concerning way. They sent out their best pitcher, who put Milwaukee in their terrible hitting split, and the Brewers still put up 7 runs. Now Cincinnati sends out arguably their worst starting pitcher in Luke Weaver, putting the Brewers in their better split, and I’m expecting lots more runs.
Weaver finally had a calm game after a string of wild ones, but he still owns a 5.80 ERA and .318 opponent batting average on the road. The Brewers also send a far weaker starter in today, and if these teams can get to double digit runs last night against the respective aces, then today should be even easier.
MLB (1.5 Unit) Philadelphia Phillies/Miami Marlins Over 7.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
I understand some of the rationale here in setting this total so low, as Miami is a solid under team and their ballpark is pitcher friendly. But LoanDepot Park hasn’t been friendly to one of the starters here, Miami’s Braxton Garrett who has a 5.27 ERA at home. Garrett also gets beaten up by the Phillies, who have a cumulative .414 average and 1.331 OPS against him and are crushing lefties the past month.
I’m also expecting the regression to continue for Ranger Suarez today. The Philly lefty finally had a blowup after an astounding June, and it came against a team known for hitting lefties well. Miami is still leading the league in average against lefties, and have finally started bringing all those baserunners home, so I think Suarez continues regressing towards his high expected ERA. That makes this very low total very attainable, and I see an easy over here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1387-1228 ATS (+66.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.