Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins Team Total Under 4.5 (-115; Odds via BetMGM): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’ll be at this game so obviously I’m going to have action on it. Unfortunately it’s not the kind I’d prefer as a Twins fan, but the numbers really can’t be ignored here. Spoiler alert for below, I’ll talk about how Milwaukee struggles against left-handed pitching, and the only team consistently worse than them is Minnesota. The Twins are dead last in scoring and average against lefties, and 29th in OPS, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average.

Cole Irvin has gotten over his early season struggles to post a 3.44 ERA since the start of June, and the Twins managed just one run in his start on Sunday. Plus, he’s backed by objectively the best bullpen in baseball. I hope to see a Twins win tonight, but it’ll have to be because of their pitching instead of hitting.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings ML @ Tampa Bay Rays (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 5:40 PM CT on AppleTV+

The Braves are undefeated in the first 5 innings of their past 11 games, going 9-0-2 on the moneyline. The longer term numbers are equally as impressive, as they’re 17-2-4 on the F5 moneyline going back 23 games. Atlanta is the highest-scoring team in MLB for the first 5 innings, and typically use explosive first innings where they’re the highest-scoring team by a wide margin, then never look back.

So to get them at even money here to continue that trend is great value in my mind. They’re catching the Rays in a bit of a slump having lost 5 straight, and that includes a home sweep to another NL East team in the Phillies. With Charlie Morton motivated here facing his old team and Tyler Glasnow not being as sharp as he should be, I like the Braves to jump out to another early lead here.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

Hold on, are you serious? Am I really seeing Alek Manoah listed as the starter for Toronto here? We should be celebrating Alek Manoah Day as much as we did Patrick Corbin Day or Matt Harvey Day in years past. Manoah is going to have to prove me wrong here after a stretch of the most disastrous outings in recent memory, including his infamous thrashing at the hands of a rookie league team.

I wish it was just about any team other than Detroit he was facing, but if Manoah is truly broken then even the Tigers should further his struggles. They have put up good numbers against poor pitching lately though, averaging 5 runs per game over their past 22 games. Manoah is also likely to be left out there longer no matter what after the Jays used their bullpen for 8 innings in yesterday’s doubleheader. So until I see different, any day that Manoah takes the mound is a day I’ll look to fade him in any way possible.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Detroit Tigers ML (+120; Odds via Fanduel)

Have to do it, plain and simple. Toronto is 1-9 in Manoah’s past 10 starts, even losing the games where he doesn’t get shelled. After yesterday’s long doubleheader plus travel the Jays should be worn out, and I think the Tigers take advantage here.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds ML @ Milwaukee Brewers (+110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

We’ll get a pretty good sense of who the top NL Central team truly is during this series, and I happen to believe it’s Cincinnati. This looks like a good situation for them at the kind of price that we haven’t seen available since the start of their ascent.

Coincidentally, it was the end of a series with Milwaukee where the Reds started to look like they were for real, and it was their starting pitcher today who kicked off this run of success. Andrew Abbott still hasn’t gotten touched up at all in his first 6 games of major league action, compiling some excellent numbers against a few strong lineups. The Brewers are not a strong lineup when facing a lefty like Abbott, ranking bottom-5 in just about every metric including the worst K-rate against lefties.

I’m also not all that scared of Corbin Burnes these days, especially not after he compiled a 4.99 ERA in June. With their best pitcher on the mound and still playing red-hot baseball, I like the Reds to pull the small upset here.

MLB (1 Unit) Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros ML (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

The best thing for this bet was Seattle winning last night, deflating the price to back Houston today. But I wouldn’t expect that to be a sign of anything to come for the Mariners, who are still one of the absolute worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching. I think righty Hunter Brown gives the Astros the edge on the mound here, especially with Luis Castillo going for the Mariners. Castillo has not been sharp recently, and has struggled on the road all season. The Astros are the team on the rise in this one, and I expect them to get revenge for last night’s loss.

MLB (0.5 Unit) NY Mets ML @ San Diego Padres (+110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

It’s a fascinating clash here of two incredibly talented teams failing to meet expectations this season. But both teams are showing flashes, but particularly the Mets who haven’t lost since the calendar flipped to July.

In a starting pitching matchup of two aging greats, I’m giving the edge to Justin Verlander as well. He has been outstanding in his past two starts, and the Padres lineup is batting just .151 with a .458 OPS in their careers against him, typical given their issues against righties.

And with Yu Darvish going for San Diego it’s tough to know what you’ll get from his up-and-down season, but it’s been mostly down lately with a 6.75 ERA his past 7 starts. The smart money seems to agree as they’ve been coming in on the Mets overnight, and I think New York keeps it rolling tonight behind their ace.

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Dallas Wings Team Total Over 81.5 (-115; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ION

The handicap really remains the same here from Wednesday when the Wings put up 82 on the Aces in a near upset. It was such a close call on the team total because the Aces locked down defensively in the second half after Dallas hung 51 by halftime. But I don’t expect the Dallas scoring to fall off as much being at home where they’re 7-1 over this team total and average 86.4 PPG. The Vegas defense takes a step back on the road as well, allowing 83.3 PPG compared to 75.8 at home. Give me the Wings here to score consistently throughout this game and get over the isolated number.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Aces/Wings Over 174.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Be sure to check on the status of Kelsey Plum before jumping in on the full game over here. The Aces guard was a late scratch due to illness on Wednesday, and the offense definitely felt her absence. But if she’s good to go tonight then this Vegas team will be firing on all cylinders offensively. With Dallas pushing the pace and doing their own scoring, that should drive this over a discounted total after Wednesday’s game fell just short.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1384-1224 ATS (+67.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.