Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings Under 5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
This is all about Eury Perez being absolutely stone cold locked in right now. The young Marlins righty has allowed 1 run in his past 33 innings of work. That’s right, one. The opposition hasn’t been elite over that stretch, and the Braves are certainly an elite offense, but I just can’t go against someone who’s that locked in. And if Atlanta has anything close to a weakness offensively it’s right-handed pitching, which they don’t hit nearly as well as they do lefties.
The Marlins meanwhile are considerably weaker against righties, and they’ll see one today in Charlie Morton. They’re a different team with Jazz Chisholm back, but they had him for a game in late April where Morton held the Fish to 1 run in 7 innings. If Perez stays hot and regression comes from yesterday’s 16-4 scoring binge, we should see a slow start to this game.
MLB (0.25 Unit) SF Giants ML @ NY Mets (+120; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on SNY
It’s getting a little ridiculous for the Metropolitans now after blowing another game last night. They just keep finding ways to lose games, and if they aren’t trustworthy to back, then you have to fade them. The pricing in today’s matchup is of course impacted by the brand name of Justin Verlander starting for New York, but I’m not falling for it.
The Mets are just 1-5 in Verlander’s past 6 starts where he’s accumulated a 4.50 ERA, even losing the games where he pitches well. While Anthony DeSclafani is tough to trust for the Giants, he has been much better on the road and San Fran is on the rise. This is just too good of a price to pass up in order to fade a team collapsing in on itself.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Connecticut Sun/LV Aces Over 170.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC
I would expect this to be a statement game from Vegas on national TV, as the Aces lost their lone game of the season at Connecticut a few weeks ago. That was part of a doubleheader at Mohegan Sun where both games got over this total, even though in the loss the Aces had by far their lowest scoring output of the season. The Sun certainly know how to score on the Aces too, putting up 94 and 84 points in those games, so they’ll help push the scoring up today as well. But if the Aces are looking to avenge that loss and make a statement here, then points are going to pile up this afternoon.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) LV Aces Team Total Over 90.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Sun are also second to the Aces in the WNBA standings, and we saw what Vegas did to the other team that was perceived as a threat to them, demolishing the Liberty 98-81 on Thursday. If Vegas brings that kind of energy and determination, then they’ll run up the score here. I’m amazed this number is so low for a team averaging 94.5 PPG at home.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1378-1216 ATS (+68.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.