Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ Detroit Tigers (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 6:15 PM CT on FOX
The Twins are looking for revenge in Detroit after the Tigers took a series from them last week at Target Field, and after a solid win last night I think they get more here. It’s sometimes difficult to be a Pablo Lopez fan, but not when he’s on the road where he has a 2.72 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .209 on-base average allowed.
I think Lopez keeps that up against a Tigers team that’s one of the worst in baseball against right-handed pitching. If he does, then the Twins should get a comfortable win behind scoring off Detroit starter Reese Olson. The young righty puts the Twins in their better split, and he’s been rocked in his past two starts. Both these teams are about as enigmatic as you can find, but this pitching matchup points too squarely towards Minnesota to pass up.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Oakland A’s Team Total Under 3.5 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 3:07 PM CT on MLB Network
I think the A’s we all know and love are back. They finally broke their 8-game losing streak last night where their offensive futility had been on full display, but I’m not scared off. The past 10 games overall they’re 8-2 under this number while averaging 2.7 runs per game. The biggest surprise contained within that win streak was their success against righties, but that has fallen off a cliff.
They’ll face a tough right-hander tonight as Jose Berrios looks for a bounce back. Berrios finally had a rough outing after 8 consecutive strong games, but it was on the road where he’s prone to blowups. In those 8 straight good performances only one team got over this total, and only one team has gone over it in his home starts where he boasts a 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Against arguably the worst offense in the league, I think he holds them below this isolated total.
MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 5 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on MLB Network
It’s truly amazing that the Royals are still winless when Jordan Lyles starts. It’s not even entirely his fault as a bad bullpen shares some of the blame, but still incredible to see. At this point though that’s about as well-kept a secret in the betting world as something you’d leave in boxes stacked in the bathroom, so backing Tampa here has to be in team total form instead of the juiced-up sides.
Lyles and that bullpen aren’t just guarantees to cost KC the game, but to give up a considerable number of runs in the process. Opposing teams are averaging 6.6 runs per game in the 15 games Lyles has started, considerably higher than the 5.3 allowed per game overall by this staff. As a right-hander, Lyles is up against the worst possible team as the Rays still lead baseball in just about every metric against righties. As last night’s 11-run outburst showed, Tampa never takes it easy on bad teams either, so look for them to keep the hit parade going all game.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds Team Total Over 5 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH
It’s fun to be on the Cincinnati bandwagon since this team has the best vibes around it of any MLB squad. But 12-game win streaks have a tendency to end abruptly, so I’m looking to back them in other ways. I think they can clear this team total once again since their general strategy seems to be just out-hit the other team.
That can be a tough ask against this Braves lineup, but it doesn’t mean the Reds won’t put up plenty with Jared Shuster taking the mound. Cincy is one of the better hitting teams against lefties like Shuster, and have been scoring 6.6 runs per game during this winning streak. Shuster has posted a 5.40 ERA on the road and Great American Ballpark is hitter-friendly with favorable weather conditions today, so look for the Reds to keep the bats hot.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 4 (-125; Odds via Fanduel): 3:10 PM CT on NBCS-CHI
I kind of like the Red Sox to win this game at a pick-em price, but I’m usually wary of when the White Sox get to face a lefty like James Paxton. So instead, I’ll look for Boston to take advantage of Lance Lynn’s general awfulness today. The Chicago righty has only had road starts in June and those have been bad enough, but returning home where he owns a 7.64 ERA should spell trouble.
Boston can also put a lot of lefties in the lineup, which Lynn has allowed a .348 average and 1.059 OPS to this season. The Red Sox have found their offense recently with 6.3 runs per game their past 10, so they should exploit a bad pitcher here.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Indiana Fever/LV Aces Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on NBATV
This Las Vegas team is a lot of fun, they remind me of watching Gonzaga dismantle some poor cupcake in the non-conference schedule. It’s a lot of pushing tempo and scoring at will, which should turn this game into a track meet. Indiana has a fairly poor defense, allowing 83.2 PPG and struggling to defend the three which the Aces excel at shooting. But the Fever have no problem playing up-tempo themselves, and I think that creates a shootout to cash the over here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) LV Aces Team Total Over 92.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
This number is dead on their points-per-game average this season, but they’ve cleared it in all 5 home games and their past 4 games overall. An up-tempo game against a suspect Fever defense should see the Aces erupt again.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury/Seattle Storm 1st Half Over 80.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Twitter Live
There’s a fascinating trend in the WNBA both overall and with these teams in particular that I’m looking to take advantage of. First halves are much higher-scoring so far in the league, and these two squads really exemplify it. Phoenix especially, as the Mercury’s games this season average 89.3 first half points but just 74 in the second half, while Seattle’s games have seen 83.5 and 77.7, respectively. Odds makers seem to be somewhat catching on with this first half number being 50.5% of the full-game total, but it’s not enough for two teams with such drastic splits.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1360-1201 ATS (+67.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.