Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Zach Eflin Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports SUN
After yesterday’s shocking and embarrassing loss to Kansas City, I’m guessing the Rays come out with a purpose tonight. Unfortunately they’re still too big of a favorite to back in any traditional way, but this caught my attention.
Zach Eflin has been nothing short of elite at home, posting a 1.85 ERA and 0.80 WHIP so he’s able to control games with ease. Eflin should dominate again tonight with the Royals being one of the league’s worst against right-handed pitching. He’s also gone more than 6 innings in his past 4 home starts, and that’s all we need to cash this prop at a juicy return.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers ML @ NY Yankees (-105; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on YES
Nice job last night Yankees, those 10-0 holes are really helpful. That game exemplified New York’s troubles with right-handed pitching that have plagued them all month. What I didn’t expect was a weak Seattle offense producing in bunches, whereas today I’m much more confident in Texas’ excellent offense.
The league’s highest-scoring team overall with the best batting average against righties should get to Clarke Schmidt today, just as they did earlier in the season with 5 runs in 5 innings. And the Yankee bats should experience more futility tonight against Dane Dunning. While the Ranger righty has seen his strong start slow down a bit, he’s still the exact kind of pitcher this shorthanded Yankee lineup struggles with. That puts Texas at the advantage here, and the team with the best plus/minus in road games should come away with the win here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels -1.5 @ Colorado Rockies (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNetRM
This lefty versus lefty pitching matchup gives the Angels a clear advantage tonight. And with Colorado returning home after a long road trip full of lopsided losses, I see another coming here in a game LA needs.
The Angel bats went quiet in losing both games of the cross-town series, but they should wake up here as this team hits better on the road and much better against lefties. Kyle Freeland has looked good at home this year, but behind him is an atrocious and worn-out bullpen so the Angels will eventually start stacking runs.
And the Rockies find themselves in a spot where they tend to struggle, with their first game back at Coors after a road trip has seen them post a minus-4.2 average run differential. They’re also terrible against lefties, ranked 29th in OPS and 30th in wOBA so Patrick Sandoval who’s been great on the road this year can hold them down. This is a great price for a spot where LA should cruise.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks @ SF Giants -1.5 (+120; Odds via BetMGM): 9:15 PM CT on MLB Network
First and foremost this is just a really tough spot for Arizona to be in. They had to play a makeup game yesterday on their day off, requiring them to fly from Milwaukee to DC and then cross-country to San Francisco. I think that makes them fairly sluggish tonight against a Giants team that’s been waiting for them and is off an embarrassing loss yesterday.
The Diamondbacks aren’t helped by starting Zach Davies either who has been absolutely rocked in his past two outings. How a team in first place has a starter with a 7.11 ERA is quite the mystery, but it should bite them here. Logan Webb is having an excellent season at home meanwhile, posting a 2.04 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 6 starts. He should hold down the sleepy D’backs bats to allow the Giants to roll.
Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each) Giants Team Total Over 4.5 (-105) & Game Over 8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
Those past two starts by Davies are very troubling, with the opposing team scoring 15 and 12 runs. Obviously, anything close to that easily cashes both of these, and I think the Giants are in a position to potentially hit the full game over themselves.
WNBA (0.75 Unit) NY Liberty/Atlanta Dream Over 169 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ION
I wish this total hadn’t skyrocketed, but I definitely understand why it did. These teams have played twice this season, totaling 189 points in the first meeting and 165 points in the second. The difference was that star Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu missed the second game after dropping 37 on Atlanta in the other meeting. She’s set to return from injury tonight, and with the Dream 4-1 to the over at home this season I think the points pile up in this one.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1355-1199 ATS (+65.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.