Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants @ LA Dodgers -0.5 First Five Innings (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 8:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
I want nothing to do with LA’s bullpen which has consistently been losing them games, and has earned more runs than any pen but Oakland’s in baseball. That’s terrible company to be in, but it’s easy to avoid by concentrating on the first five innings tonight. Starting pitching has not been an issue for the Dodgers, especially not Bobby Miller who’s essentially untouchable so far. He’s gone at least 5 innings in all 4 of his starts, allowing a total of 2 runs since being called up last month.
Miller has held down some fairly elite lineups in those games as well, certainly better than he’ll see from the Giants today. Despite putting up quite a few runs lately, San Fran isn’t that scary against righties and has benefited from seeing a lot of poor pitching the past week. The Dodgers will need to work to score against Alex Wood since they’re struggling with lefties lately. But they’re 5th in MLB for scoring in the first five innings, and 2nd for first five runs allowed. With perhaps their best pitcher going, expect them to hold another early lead tonight.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 9:10 PM CT FS1
They’re leading one of the best divisions in baseball by a solid margin almost halfway through the season. They’re hosting the second place team from arguably baseball’s weakest division. What else does Arizona need to do to get some respect? I can understand the price from a pitching matchup standpoint, with Shane Bieber getting the name recognition.
But The Bieb’s has been rough on the road with his ERA more than doubling, plus his overall expected ERA is showing regression should come soon. I think it shows up today against a Diamondbacks team that’s been quietly outstanding against right-handed pitching. Cleveland has also been playing unsustainably well lately, so with regression expected in multiple departments I’ll roll with the underappreciated home team here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Guardians/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-120; Odds via Fanduel)
I think Arizona’s excellent bats get to Bieber like I said, but they don’t have anything close to an ace taking the mound themselves. Tommy Henry has been knocked around in his past two starts, and the Guardians are red hot against lefties this month. If all those things materialize tonight we’ll have plenty of runs and get over a very moderate total.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1349-1189 ATS (+69.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.