Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Miami Heat Under 211 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
This series is being played at an absolute crawl, and that makes this seemingly-low total just too high. Through three games, the Heat and Nuggets have averaged 92.7 possessions per game, which is almost five possessions less than the slowest team over the full season. Add in that Miami’s effective field goal percentage this series is two points below the worst team all season and I’m not encourage by the prospect of points here.
There’s a reason why two games have gone well under this number while the third needed an outlier 4th quarter from Miami to go over. Additionally, Game 4’s in the Finals since 2005 are 14-4 to the under. When the home team is down 2-1 like Miami is, that turns into a perfect 10-0 to the under. Tonight should be lower-scoring as well.
Bonus Bet (Degenerate Only): Miami Heat 1st Quarter +0.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Heat might only be down 2-1 in the series but make no mistake, this is desperation time for them. Going back to Denver down 3-1 is all but a death sentence, so I expect those stakes to inspire their best tonight. I think it starts early too, just as it did on Wednesday night with a tie game after one quarter. Coach Eric Spoelstra’s mastery of adjustments should show right away, and that will give Miami an early edge.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(1 Unit) Gabe Vincent Over 12.5 Points (-125; Odds via DraftKings)
Vincent had a horrible shooting night on Wednesday, as did lots of role players. But he’s too good of a shooter and attacker for that to hold him down again, and this number looks a bit discounted.
(1.25 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 44 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Another 30/20 game isn’t all that likely, but this is also Jokic we’re talking about so anything seems possible. Miami appears to be letting him score, and his rebounding prowess makes this number very attainable.
(1 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 33.5 Points+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The pick and roll with Murray and Jokic is carving Miami up, and that’s putting Murray in position to rack up the assists. Add in him shooting over 50% in the Finals, and he should be able to reach this combined number once again.
(1 Unit) Bam Adebayo Over 30.5 Points+Rebounds (-120; Odds via DraftKings)
I was doubting Bam after a couple ugly games against Boston, but he’s gotten back on track in a big way. He’s been extremely aggressive offensively, is still the best rebounding option Miami has, and is logging a ton of minutes, all which should contribute to him getting over this combined number again.
(0.75 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 9.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The Caleb Martin we know and love seemed to return in Game 3, finally appearing to be healthy again. The most important part was that he saw 32 minutes, and that kind of involvement should allow him to get over this number again.
(0.25 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Under 16.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The shooting woes continue in a big way for MPJ as he’d struggle to throw it into the ocean from South Beach right now. He’s also seen all his minutes go to the Brown/Braun duo, so I like him to stay under this number that’s based on long-gone levels of play.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:07 PM CT on Bally Sports North
Quality pitching has held this stagnant Twins offense down early in games lately, and I expect more of the same with a tough matchup tonight. Minnesota’s quiet bats have managed 3 runs total in the first 5 innings of their past 6 games. A lot of that has to do with good pitchers opposing them, and while tonight’s starter isn’t elite, he still matches up well with the Twins.
Yusei Kikuchi forces the Twins into two of their worst-case splits here, having to face a lefty on the road. Minnesota has been a bottom-5 offense away from Target Field this season, and they’re even worse against left-handed pitching.
But the Twins shouldn’t surrender much here with Sonny Gray on the mound. Toronto is an excellent offense against righties, but Gray has held their lineup to a cumulative .169 average and .619 OPS in his career. The Twins need to win games from the mound, so expect Gray to hold Toronto down and keep this game quiet early on.
MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Dodgers/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on NBCS-PH
Two elite offensive teams square off here, and I think both starting pitchers are in trouble. Michael Grove for the Dodgers has been just ok in his early big-league action, but terrible on the road and awful against left-handed bats. Philadelphia can line up plenty of lefties at the plate, including their most fearsome hitters to take advantage.
And while Ranger Suarez was impressive last time out, this Dodger lineup is just plain hot. They aren’t in their preferred split overall against a lefty, but the past 30 days have seen them crush left-handed pitching and pull those numbers up. And the past 15 road games for LA have seen their games average 12.2 runs. It’s finally better weather and hitting conditions in Philly, so I see these offenses taking advantage against weaker pitchers.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100; Odds via DraftKings)
I’m tempted to bet Schwarbs for a home run tonight, but that’s only at +200 odds which is nonsensical for that market. But it’s June, which means it’s Schwarber’s time to tear the cover off the ball. And Dodgers starter Michael Grove has allowed a .385 average and 1.159 OPS to lefties so far this season, so expect Schwarber to record either a couple hits or an extra-base knock tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1329-1169 ATS (+69.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.