Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat +2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC
For three straight series in the East playoffs, the Heat entered as a sizable underdog. For three straight series in the East playoffs, the Heat went and stole home court. For three straight series in the East playoffs, the Heat came home and won Game 3 in lopsided fashion. Now they’ve stolen home court in the NBA Finals as sizable underdogs for the series, so why should tonight’s Game 3 be any different? I can’t be the only one seeing this pattern, yet there are lots of smart basketball minds saying the Nuggets are primed to bounce back in this game. But I’m pretty sure those people already said that three times this postseason, and I’m done doubting Miami, period, so I’ll take the points.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat 1st Quarter +1 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
As with all their Game 3’s in general, history keeps repeating itself for Miami in a micro sense for the first quarters. Every single first quarter of their previous Game 3’s have seen the Heat win by exactly 8 points. I’m honestly a little freaked out by it considering the macro trends that also exist for those games. But I think it continues here, as a wild home crowd might put some nerves into a Nuggets team that hasn’t shown a lot of mental toughness yet in the Finals.
Bonus Prop Bets:
(1.2 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 Points (-120; Odds via DraftKings)
It seems like Miami has adopted a strategy of allowing Jokic to do what he wants from a scoring standpoint as long as he doesn’t shred them with his passing. He shouldn’t have too much trouble with this total regardless, but especially if that’s Miami’s plan.
(0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 40.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I’m shying away from his PRA number because I’m anticipating less assists. But he’ll still be his dominant self on the boards, so this combined prop should be easy to reach.
(0.25 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Made Three’s (+115; Odds via DraftKings)
If they’re going to let him score, they’re likely to leave him open behind the arc. He had 5 attempts on Sunday, and should be able to splash 2 again with that kind of volume.
(1 Unit) Gabe Vincent Over 14.5 Points (+100; Odds via DraftKings)
Vincent might be the Heat’s most effective offensive weapon right now, and definitely one of the most aggressive. He’s gone over this in 6 of his past 8 games including all 3 home games against Boston.
(0.75 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 8.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The discount has arrived on Martin after two bad games, at least one of which was impacted by illness. But he should play much better at full strength and at home, where he’s averaging 12.5 PPG this postseason.
(0.5 Unit) Jamal Murray Over 31.5 Points+Assists (-125; Odds via DraftKings)
With the Heat taking away Jokic’s distributing, that role falls to Murray, which he showed with 10 dimes last game. But he’s still the most dangerous shooter Denver has, and should be asked to handle both roles in this game.
(0.5 Unit) Aaron Gordon Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I’m still extremely mad at Michael Porter Jr for his no-show flop on Sunday, and if he’s going to continue playing poorly then Gordon will have to pick up that slack. Denver went away from bully ball in Game 2 to some extent, but a return to that with Gordon’s size and athleticism should get him over this number.
(Degenerate Only) Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I hate to do it to Playoff Jimmy, but we haven’t really been seeing that version of him since he tweaked his ankle against Boston. The Nuggets have the nightmare matchup to put on Butler with Aaron Gordon, whose size should continue to frustrate the Heat star.
MLB (0.5 Unit) SF Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on MLB Network
After last night’s 14-run outburst by these teams, I think we’re in for more of the same in this game. Two right-handed starters in Logan Webb and Connor Seabold is what you want to see for these lineups. The Giants are a top-5 offense according to deeper metrics against righties, and that will play a factor in Coors Field with a strong wind blowing out to right-center.
And even though Logan Webb has been strong lately, he hasn’t faced a team that hits righties as well as the Rockies do. Colorado is 2nd in batting average against righties, and this second game back after a road trip should see their excellent home hitting stats return to form. This is a low total by Coors Field standards, and good hitting conditions should help fuel an over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1323-1164 ATS (+69.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.