Locks

MLB (1.2 Unit) Arizona Diamondbacks/Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MASN2

I’m always looking for ways to back Washington against lefties, and that’s what they’ll face today. Tommy Henry gets the start for the Diamondbacks, and while he’s been good overall, the struggles have come on the road and against teams that hit lefties well. Washington is now a top-5 offense in average, scoring, and weighted runs created against lefties, and should show why again tonight.

But the other part of this is I’m usually looking to back Arizona against right-handers, and they’ll see a struggling one tonight in Jake Irvin. This D’backs team is for real, and they’re at their best against righties with an offense that’s top-10 or better in most categories. Irvin has been awful at home with a 7.47 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, and the strong left-handed bats for Arizona should take advantage of his struggles against that side. So with two questionable starters, two bottom-10 bullpens backing them up, and underrated offenses, this game should find its way over the total.

MLB (1.2 Unit) LA Dodgers -1.5 @ Cincinnati Reds (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

I’m really surprised the juice on this run line isn’t out of control. The Dodgers are just so good against right-handed pitching, and they’ll see a weak righty starter in Luke Weaver today. Weaver has struggled at home in the small park, and an LA lineup full of power should take advantage. Meanwhile Tony Gonsolin is back to looking like his old self, dominating both sides of the plate and only allowing a .130 average on the road. Of the past 20 wins for LA, 17 have been by a multi-run margin, so if you think they’re winning here they’re doing it by the run line.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+150; Odds via Caesars)

LA Dodgers (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds: 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

I’ll hedge a little bit off laying the run line with LA here and only ask them to win. Cincinnati just had their pitching brutalized by a much weaker Milwaukee lineup over the weekend, and the Dodgers should tee off. There’s a pattern with Weaver’s home struggles, and it’s that they all have been against power lineups, so expect LA to score with ease. But such heavy juice here isn’t something I’m in the business of laying, so I want to pair it with another winner for a plus-juice return.

St Louis Cardinals @ Texas Rangers (-155): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

I’m out on this Cardinals team until they get some pitching and prove they can hit with any kind of consistency. Until then, cheap prices like this are good to take advantage of as St Louis is still overvalued and Texas is undervalued. The Rangers have the second-best home record in the league, and have the best average margin of victory in those games. Texas leads MLB in scoring against lefties like Cards starter Matthew Liberatore, and are top-5 in just about every other metric. Their offense went a little quiet last night, but expect them to take care of business at home again to close this parlay.

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+125; Odds via Caesars)

Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-250): 6:05 PM CT on SportsNet PT

The A’s made a game of it last night in Pittsburgh, but what seems to happen every time for them happened again. No matter what you need when fading Oakland, their ridiculously awful pitching – particularly out of the bullpen – always seems to oblige. The Pirates should jump on that pitching staff throughout this one as James Kaprielian gets the start, owner of a 10.32 ERA and 2.21 WHIP on the road. With sneaky Cy Young candidate Mitch Keller going for Pittsburgh, I see the A’s struggling to score much if at all since they’re the worst in baseball against righties. That should make this one pretty easy as is usually the case with Oakland.

Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees (-165): 6:05 PM CT on YES

Another disappointing team hits the road here, as the White Sox bring their awful road record to the Bronx. Chicago is just 10-20 on the road this year, better than only the Royals and A’s, with pretty poor stats away from home too. And their starter Lucas Giolito continues having issues on the road himself, bad news against this finally healthy Yankee lineup. Yanks starter Clarke Schmidt has been excellent lately after a rocky April, and faces a ChiSox team that just continues to struggle against righties. This one is all about home/road splits and a sneaky pitching matchup that point squarely to a Yankees win.

MLB (1.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs/LA Angels Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:38 PM CT on MLB Network

Both of these teams have run into good pitchers, bad hitting weather, or both in recent games. But today has the potential for both offenses to break out of those mini slumps. The biggest factor is probably Tyler Anderson starting for the Angels. He’s going up against one of the best teams against lefties, and has been hit hard by right-handed bats which makes up the strength of Chicago’s lineup.

So I think the Cubs get things going offensively here, and LA does as well against Hayden Wesneski. The Chicago righty has been fairly solid, but will have trouble with the excellent left-handed bats the Angels can send up. He also doesn’t go deep into games, only 4.7 innings per start, which brings a bad Cubs bullpen into play. With a wind blowing out of Angel Stadium tonight, these teams should find their way over the total.

Degenerates

Bonus Bets:

I’m also playing a lot of the combinations of these teams I have winning to both hedge and maximize potential return.

2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+115; Odds via Caesars)

Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-250) & LA Dodgers (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds

2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+165; Odds via Caesars)

Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees (-165) & St Louis Cardinals @ Texas Rangers (-155)

2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+145; Odds via Caesars)

Chicago White Sox @ NY Yankees (-165) & LA Dodgers (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds

Tiny Nick is 1321-1163 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.