Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

The past two games of sub-100 point outputs by Miami have mainly been caused by one issue: turnovers, as in 16 of them in both games. Any amount of cleanup in that area and the Heat are most assuredly back to scoring in the triple digits. I expect that it was the major focus for them since Thursday, and I think they’ll be better tonight.

I also expect Jimmy Butler to play a massive number of minutes in this game, and his presence significantly raises Miami’s offensive efficiency. Add in some improved shooting back in their home arena and I see the Heat returning to this still modest level of scoring.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Boston Celtics/Miami Heat Over 210 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

If the Heat are going over their isolated total here, then there’s a very strong chance for the game to go over as well. You can’t ignore how good the Celtics have looked offensively for the past 6 quarters, as the rim has been the size of a kiddie pool for them. Elimination scenario stakes has me worried about pace and defensive effort, but this number has crept down too low not to look to the over.

Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Miami Heat +3 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Jimmy Butler all but guaranteed Miami would win this game, and they’d better or else I can all but guarantee Boston is going to the finals. I think a different sense of urgency will be in play for the Heat here though, as their losses in Games 4 and 5 were difficult situational spots where they didn’t truly need the game. Miami has typically been strong as a home playoff dog, and if they clean up the turnovers and shooting like I mentioned above, they’ll be competitive to the end tonight.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(1.5 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 18.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This prop is the gift that keeps on giving. While it keeps ticking up, so does the level of Martin’s play. I can understand isolating his points prop at 12.5 if you prefer, but that’s heavily juiced and his consistent rebounding production is a big boost for getting to this number.

(1.25 Unit) Grant Williams Over 12.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Williams sort of disappeared in Thursday’s game, partly because he was the one Celtic who wasn’t on fire. But his two best games in this series were in Miami, and I expect him to get more minutes and be more involved in all facets tonight.

(0.75 Unit) Derrick White Over 2.5 Made Threes (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

It’s just remarkable consistency in White going over this number in every game of the series. His success from deep continues tonight as Boston should ride the hot hand.

(0.75 Unit) Derrick White Over 19.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If he’s going to shoot like he has the past two games, going 62% from the field and 60% from deep, he’ll approach this total on points alone. But the extra few boards and assists that he throws in go a long way in getting to a total like this, and he should go over once again.

(0.5 Unit) Al Horford Over 1.5 Made Threes (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Horford has been extremely hit or miss in these playoffs, but he’s been much better on the road for some reason. He’s hit multiple threes in 6 of 8 road games including both games in Miami during this series. He’s been getting the opportunities, and I think he cashes them in here.

(0.5 Unit) Jimmy Butler Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

If you’re not backing Playoff Jimmy in this spot, then what are you doing? He needs to back up his talk about finishing the series off here, and I already mentioned how I expect him to log massive minutes. When he plays over 35 minutes in this series he’s averaging 30.3 PPG, and I expect an all-out effort for a vintage performance tonight.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Washington Nationals F5 Innings ML @ KC Royals (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on Bally Sports KC

Usually I’m looking to back the Nationals against lefties, but despite their struggles against right-handed pitching, today is different. This is no ordinary righty starter from the Royals, as Brady Singer has been one of the most generous pitchers in baseball. He has a 7.85 ERA at home, an 8.69 ERA in day games, and is getting crushed by both sides of the plate.

So if the Nats can put together some offense, I expect Josiah Gray to handle the rest. The righty has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 8 of his 10 starts this season. He faces a KC lineup full of left-handed bats which he dominates, and the Royals are 28th in average, weighted runs created, and weighted on-base average against righties. I’m only looking to the first five innings here though since Washington’s bullpen was overworked in last night’s 12-10 slugfest, so I’ll isolate this massive pitching mismatch.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1305-1146 ATS (+72.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.