Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Over 105.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on TNT

They’re making me do it again. Whether you agree with the Heat being home underdogs here – and I somewhat question that decision – it puts them in a spot where their team total is once again undervalued as the lower number. Miami scored just about 2 points more per game at home this season, so it’s fair to raise their team total a couple points compared to Games 1 and 2 from that perspective.

But what the Heat have been doing to Boston’s defense is what’s not getting factored in enough here. Their already red-hot shooting from deep will likely only improve at home, and Boston has shown no ability to guard the perimeter. With those shots dropping, Miami is in an excellent position to stay competitive here and clear this team total again.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Boston Celtics/Miami Heat Over 213.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Boston has not shot it well in this series, particularly from long range which is such a big part of their offense. So that shooting is bound to improve eventually, and being on the road might actually help. They’ve actually played better on the road in these playoffs, and are scoring 117.2 PPG in those contests. Improved shooting and scoring by the Celtics, plus the Heat being able to clear their own team total, should send the full game over as well.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(0.5 Unit) Jimmy Butler Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

This is my squarest play of the day, simply falling in love with Playoff Jimmy. He wasn’t playing particularly well until that stretch run in Game 2, but I see some of that motivation carrying over into tonight. He scores 2.6 more PPG at home this season, and is averaging 33 at home in the playoffs, so I’ll back him here.

(0.75 Unit) Caleb Martin Over 11.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Role players such as Martin tend to have much better scoring games at home in the postseason, but he’s already playing at a high level. He dropped 15 and 25 in Boston and is shooting lights out. He’s the only Heat player beside Jimmy Butler to lead the team in scoring in a playoff game, so the potential is there for another solid performance tonight.

(0.75 Unit) Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds (-120; Odds via DraftKings)

Simply put, Bam is dominating the interior in this series. Boston was so desperate for inside help that they gave a bunch of minutes to Grant Williams, and we all know how that turned out. There is no answer for Adebayo right now, and I expect him to keep cleaning the glass as part of his excellent all-around contributions.

MLB (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Twins/LA Angels Over 7.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 3:07 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This low total is all thanks to brand name pitchers taking the mound, and perhaps the biggest in Shohei Ohtani going for the Angels. But it’s been rough going for both Ohtani and Twins starter Pablo Lopez lately, and that has me going against the market perception of their strength.

The past 4 starts for Ohtani have been pretty troubling, as the Angels star has compiled a 6.12 ERA with 8 home runs allowed. Those starts have gone 3-1 over this total as the Angels have given him a good amount of run support.

I think they can do that again today facing Pablo Lopez, who’s had his own struggles recently. He’s posted a 6.11 ERA across his past 5 starts, with those games going 4-1 over this total and averaging 12.4 runs. With a solid breeze blowing out to center today, I think both offenses can exploit pitchers that aren’t living up to their reputations.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 4.5 (+100; Odds via BetMGM): 12:35 PM CT on MASN2

This is almost the same handicap as Friday when the Nationals faced another left-handed Tigers starter. They’ll get Joey Wentz today, and seem primed to once again get over this total. They’ve done it in both games with Detroit this weekend, and with Wentz bringing his 6.28 May ERA it’ll be tough for Detroit to hold them down. Washington is batting almost 50 points higher against lefties like Wentz, as well as much better in day games. They’re continually undervalued thanks to preseason expectations, but I see them putting enough offense together here to get over the isolated total.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1290-1130 ATS (+74.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.