Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/LA Lakers Under 223 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on ABC

There’s been some incredible shot-making in this series that blew up the total in Game 1, and created some more scoring down the stretch in Game 2. But the pace of both games has been relatively low, with a number of possessions so far at 100.4 that would rank among the slowest-paced teams in the league this year. The regular season saw the Lakers play slower at home and Denver play slower on the road, so I don’t anticipate a track meet breaking out any time soon, especially with how gassed these teams looked on Thursday.

And you have to factor in LA’s ability to defend in home games, with the 4th-best defensive efficiency mark this season at home. They’ve been lights out defensively in these playoffs, allowing just 98.2 regulation points per game at home. Denver might be the best shooting team in the league, which saved them on Thursday, but their offensive metrics take a sizable dip in road games. With the Lakers in desperation mode and needing to lean on defense, I’m seeing this game fall short of the total.

Bonus Prop Bets:

(0.75 Unit) Anthony Davis Over 37.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Davis didn’t have that great of a game on Thursday, certainly compared to his massive Game 1 performance. I’m following the AD pendulum swing here in a spot where he’ll need to come up big if the Lakers want to get back in this series.

(0.75 Unit) Rui Hachimura Over 17.5 Points+Rebounds (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The Nuggets have no answer defensively for Hachimura, who is shooting 76.2% from the floor in this series. He’s needed for his defensive abilities, but the offensive outbursts should earn him even more playing time and chances to get over this number again.

(0.75 Unit) Michael Porter, Jr Over 6.5 Rebounds (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

MPJ got over this number in both games in Denver, and is averaging 7.7 boards per game in the playoffs. With so much attention paid by the Lakers to keeping Jokic and Gordon off the glass, Porter is finding the opportunities and taking advantage, which I think continues tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1287-1129 ATS (+72.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.