Locks

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks/Miami Heat Over 208 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

The totals have been pretty sharp in this series, but they’re just a little too low for the modern NBA. That’s why they keep sneaking over for a record of 4-1 for the series, as the three-pointer eventually creates enough scoring. The Heat started 3 of 20 from deep on Wednesday night and even that couldn’t keep the game under, as again, those shots eventually started dropping and boosted scoring. Miami won’t shoot that poorly again, especially at home, and desperation by the Knicks should create enough scoring to get over here.

Bonus Bets:

(1 Unit) Miami Heat -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I like the value on only laying one full possession with Miami before halftime. The Heat won the first halves of the other games in Miami by 8 and 14 points, and are actually a plus-17 in all first halves this series. They should establish themselves early behind a raucous crowd.

(0.5 Unit) Miami Heat -5.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

I think that strong start carries through the full game and Miami finishes this series tonight. They certainly don’t want to take their chances in a Game 7 at MSG, and have the opportunity to gain a lot of rest over either the Celtics or Sixers. They beat this margin in their other two home games against the Knicks, and are 4-0 ATS at home and 8-2 ATS overall in the playoffs. I see their surprising postseason run moving to the next stage here.

(1 Unit) Jalen Brunson Over 39.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Brunson is averaging 41.8 on this prop throughout the series, which is actually held down by a bad night in the Game 3 blowout. He’s guaranteed to play a ton of minutes in a desperation spot just like Wednesday when he played all 48, which is the level of opportunity I’m looking for. He’s also gotten to the free throw line more and more as the series goes on, which really raises his scoring floor and makes this number even more attainable.

NBA (1 Unit) Golden State Warriors/LA Lakers 2nd Half Under 113.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Second halves in this series have averaged 104.6 points, which is 13.2 points less than the average for the first halves. That’s making this a good value play for me since it seems like the first and second half totals should almost be reversed. The second halves of this series are 4-1 under this total, and would be 5-0 if not for the Lakers dropping 41 in the fourth quarter of Game 3’s blowout. If you can bet second half numbers before the game tips or can find this number at half, I’d look for another lower-scoring finish in this one.

MLB (1 Unit) Texas Rangers -1.5 @ Oakland A’s (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:40 PM CT on NBCS-CA

The old reliable fading of Oakland continues here with a matchup I think is pretty favorable for Texas. Tonight they’ll send Martin Perez to the mound who’s looking for a bounce back after a rough last outing, and should find it against this awful A’s lineup. Oakland has been slightly better against lefties this season, but their cumulative numbers of a .188 average and .462 OPS against Perez are putrid.

And on the other side, Texas has been excellent against lefties like Ken Waldichuk. They can stack plenty of right-handed bats against him, and the A’s lefty is allowing a .320 average and 1.030 OPS to righty hitters. The Rangers are top-5 in OPS and weighted on-base average against lefties, and getting on base is key against a team like Oakland with poor fielding and relievers. With those advantages for Texas and a decent price on the run line here, I’ll continue picking on the worst team in baseball.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1265-1115 ATS (+68.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.