Locks

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Seton Hall/Baylor Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

If I see a Baylor total below the 150-point threshold, I’m jumping on the over out of principle. It would take a very unique opponent to make me think otherwise, and Seton Hall is not that opponent. The Pirates have been fairly functional defensively this season at 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency, but their schedule has only had one strong offense on it. That was a neutral-court game against Iowa that ended with 157 points.

Baylor enters this game with the top adjusted offensive efficiency mark in the country, and have proven they can score at will against higher-level competition. I just don’t see Seton Hall having the defense at all levels of the court to defend this high-powered offense. But the Pirates are also a guard-oriented offense with a dynamic player in Kadary Richmond, so they should be able to exploit Baylor’s perimeter vulnerabilities. With Baylor looking to make a statement on national TV, expect a style that leads to plenty of points from both squads.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Gonzaga First Half Team Total Over 49.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Give credit to Gonzaga for not having a long list of cupcakes on their non-conference schedule this year. At least until tonight, as that changes with Arkansas Pine Bluff visiting The Kennel for what should be a beat down. The Golden Lions rank 346th in the country on KenPom so this will not be fair, but I’m looking to the early part of the game for an edge. I think the full-game total is relatively fair, but the first half and therefore this isolated number are lower than they should be given Gonzaga’s history in these situations.

The Zags routinely run the score up early and coast late against totally outmatched opponents, often putting the full-game total in jeopardy because of how things slow down. That might not matter against the 2nd-worst defense in the country, but Pine Bluff is also giving up the 2nd-most points before halftime and actually less in second halves. In their three other visits to power conference teams, the opponent has gone over this total each time with 53.3 points on average. Gonzaga is going to love finally getting out and running at Pine Bluff’s fast tempo here, and should take advantage for a massive first half of scoring.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Gonzaga First Half Over 79.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

Pine Bluff is actually not terrible offensively, as they score plenty of points due to a high number of possessions generated by fast pace and awful defense. They’re 44th nationally in first half scoring, and those three games against quality opponents saw them average 36.7 points before halftime. That helped fuel first halves of 90.0 points on average, and I think we’ll see that kind of start here as well. If the Zags hit their team total and the Golden Lions are around their average against other top teams, this number is actually far too low.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Villanova @ Kansas State +2.5 (Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Everyone seems to be expecting a bounce back from Villanova here after two embarrassing losses to St Joseph’s and Drexel in the past week. But what if this program just isn’t all that good anymore? Jay Wright is not walking through that door to pull the levers, and Kyle Neptune has consistently shown that he is overmatched. That gives Kansas State a massive coaching edge with Jerome Tang, who surely knows that Villanova throws up on themselves at the sight of a zone defense.

While Nova has proven themselves against their toughest opponents, they just don’t bring it against lesser competition. It’s a down season for Kansas State compared to last year, but they’re still undefeated at home and are the team KenPom actually has winning this outright. I’ll take the small number of points with the home dog against a Villanova team still trading on the brand name of its former self.

Tiny Nick is 1755-1535 ATS (+93.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.