Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Illinois/Minnesota Under 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on BTN
Neither of these teams are thriving on offense, and despite very mild weather for November in Minnesota, I can’t expect much scoring in this one. The Gophers and Illini rank 101st and 107th, respectively, in points per game this season. They’re also 76th and 119th, respectively, in the all-important yards per point metric which shows how inefficient they are on the offensive side of the ball.
Those metrics in reverse show two teams that are much better on defense, and that’s why both have been solid under bets this season. The Gophers want to run the ball all game long and should have success against an Illinois defense that has taken a big step back in run defense. Combine that with a glacial pace, and Minnesota’s style should be the main factor in holding this under the total.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State +6 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ABC
Curse you conference realignment for depriving us of beautiful rivalries like this one. Sadly, we won’t be seeing another installment of Bedlam for some time, but I think it goes out in traditionally wild fashion. I’m really tempted to call for the outright upset here for Oklahoma State, as the Cowboys have been playing some of the best football in the country. But it’s stayed mostly under the radar and has helped keep this number inflated.
A top-10 team being involved will do that, but I really think Oklahoma has been overrated so far this year and is propped up by their Texas win. The defense continues to be a problem now that they’ve faced 3 straight real offenses, and they’re running into a red-hot one today. The Pokes have been unstoppable with Ollie Gordon running wild, and he’ll help keep them in this one. Add in the home crowd and emotion of giving the Sooners an unfriendly sendoff to the SEC, and Okie State will be in this one to the end.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Missouri/Georgia Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on CBS
This is a perfect matchup for offense between two teams that cannot be stopped on that side of the ball right now. Georgia has been a wrecking ball against some subpar SEC defenses as Carson Beck rounds into form and Ladd McConkey returns to the lineup. With the loss of Brock Bowers offset by McConkey’s return, Georgia has become more of a vertical passing attack that’s had tons of success against Cover 1 and Cover 3 zone defenses, exactly what Missouri runs most of the time.
But the Tigers are also unstoppable right now, hanging at least 30 in all but one game this year including 37.3 PPG in SEC play. They also have a great schematic advantage today against Georgia’s defense that has not been nearly as fearsome as years past. The Bulldogs dare teams to throw, running mostly quarters and Cover 3, which are the exact schemes Missouri has had the most explosiveness against this year. Georgia always seems to have trouble with Mizzou as well so this could be a back-and-forth game, but I expect plenty of points no matter what.
NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) California @ Oregon -13.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 4:30 PM CT on PAC12 Network
You have to feel somewhat bad for Cal here, who was victimized by some questionable officiating after having USC on the ropes last week. That game was their super bowl and a failed two-point conversion kept them from winning it, so I just don’t know how they get back up for this road trip to a juggernaut Oregon team. The Ducks are on a mission and even the most obvious stumbling blocks can’t trip them up, so I see them jumping on the Golden Bears early today.
I’m only mildly concerned about the potential look-ahead spot for the Ducks here as USC is on deck, but they seem too focused and talented to let that affect them. The Oregon offense is too strong and balanced, so a Cal defense that’s 129th in opponent yards per point should be easy to carve up. That should allow the Ducks to cruise to a big early lead in what’s likely another beatdown by them.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Kansas @ Iowa State -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
In case you haven’t noticed, my Cyclones are hot. They actually control their own destiny in potentially reaching the Big12 title game, and even though that might be a long shot, I think they keep it rolling today. Iowa State is catching Kansas in the prototypical letdown spot after the Jayhawks shocked Oklahoma, breaking a bunch of streaks and tossing their goal posts into a lake (seriously, that happened). Illustrating just how tough it is to maintain momentum in KU’s situation, teams that pull a top-20 home upset as a touchdown-plus underdog are 13-33-1 ATS the next week.
That makes it tough for me to see the Jayhawks getting back up for this game, especially on the road where they’ve been pretty bad this season. Defense has been a major concern for KU in general and particularly away from home, so dealing with a hot quarterback in Rocco Becht will be tough. Kansas is still a mid-tier Big12 team, the Clones have handled those teams with ease this season, and I like the short price for them against a team that’s riding a little too high right now.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Purdue/Michigan Over 52.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBC
With everything that’s swirling around the Michigan program right now, you’d think the Wolverines would be a bit distracted for this game. I actually see it a different way, as this national TV spot might be the perfect time for Harbaugh and the gang to say screw you, watch this. The smart money certainly agrees, as this total has been driven up all week from the open.
Michigan has already had that attitude towards their past four opponents, averaging 49.5 PPG in four straight blowout wins, and turning them into a top-5 scoring offense with the best yards-per-point ratio in the country. The Purdue defense is just not in a position to slow that down, ranking 93rd in points allowed and 108th in opponent yards-per-point. With Michigan also wanting to push quarterback JJ McCarthy’s Heisman campaign, look for the Wolverines to run this up and hit the over in the process.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) LSU/Alabama Over 61.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on CBS
It’s a good thing LSU is leading the country in scoring offense, because this defense truly can’t stop anything. It’s a combination that explains why 12 straight Tigers games have hit the over dating back to last season, and this should be no different. The Tigers will be without their two starting cornerbacks tonight, and this defense was already outside the top-100 for passing success rate allowed.
Alabama has been its most successful offensively when Jalen Milroe throws downfield, so a very vulnerable secondary could get torched here. But you also have to fully respect what Jayden Daniels is doing at quarterback for LSU right now, arguably looking the best of any QB in the country. The Tide have not been sharp defensively against dual-threat quarterbacks like Daniels, or defending deep throws. That should allow LSU to trade shots at least to some degree here in what’s projected as a close game, and I think we see an exciting one that clears this total.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Washington/USC Over 77 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ABC
If you want anything to do with the under in this game, bless your heart. You’ll have to show me the ticket to prove it, because I think the first team to 50 wins this game. Two guaranteed first-round quarterback talents squaring off, in primetime, against vulnerable defenses should create an incredible shootout. Maybe the biggest reason this game can produce 11 touchdowns is USC’s truly awful defense.
As long as Alex Grinch-who-stole-defense is running things defensively for the Trojans, just about any team can score at will. USC has allowed 42.6 PPG the past 5 weeks, and honestly hasn’t played that daunting of a schedule. Washington and Michael Penix do not let up offensively, and they’ll want to put up gaudy numbers on national TV tonight. With the always-explosive Caleb Williams ready to trade haymakers, this has all the makings of an amazing offensive showcase.
Tiny Nick is 1572-1421 ATS (+69.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.