Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
I’m carefully dipping my toe in the Wemby waters as I don’t want to fall too much into a hype trap. But the Spurs looked fairly good in his debut, covering for 47 minutes of that game before falling late. Meanwhile, the new-look Rockets were atrocious in getting blown out by Orlando, making me think it’s still the same old Rockets team. I think San Antonio definitely has the overall talent edge here even without their alien of a first-round pick, so I’ll lay the short number with them to log their first win of the Wemby era.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Clippers/Utah Jazz Over 228.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on KTLA
With the NBA season just a few days old, it can be tough betting into small sample sizes like this. But what I saw from the Utah defense in their opener makes me believe they’ll struggle on that end all season. While they had to face the high-powered Kings to start the year, it’s still concerning and the Clippers can score at will on teams as well.
The healthy trio of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook is obviously very dangerous offensively, and should have no trouble against this Jazz defense. But I’m also concerned about the defense for LA after they allowed a terrible Portland team to shoot pretty well and score 111 points. Being at elevation against a team with plenty of shooters might strain the Clippers defensively again, and I think that creates an over in this game.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Russell Westbrook Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I rode this prop during the brief playoff run for LA where Russ was literally all they had going. With a healthy Kawhi and PG13 in the fold now the Clippers have plenty more options, but that really pulls this number down. Westbrook’s distributing ability from the point creates a high floor for this prop with all the assists, and his shooting looks drastically improved, so I think this might be the lowest number we’ll see on this prop the rest of the season.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
Last spring’s playoff series between these teams was epic, and really made it clear that Sacramento is on the rise in the West. I expect Golden 1 Center to be absolutely rocking for this game as the Kings look to get some early revenge for that playoff loss, and I think they’ll get it tonight.
The Warriors did not look good in their opening loss to Phoenix, and now have to go on the road where their defense has been miserable in recent years. That should spell trouble against last season’s most efficient offense, especially with Draymond Green still out for tonight’s game. In a hyped spot on national TV, the Kings should really be up for this game and I’ll lay the points with them.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1553-1396 ATS (+77.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.