Locks

NBA Three-Point Contest (Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on TNT

(0.5 Unit) Karl-Anthony Towns +650

(0.25 Unit) Lauri Markkanen +650

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas @ Houston -6 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I know Texas is playing better lately after an ugly stretch, but they still aren’t on Houston’s level, especially on the road. I’ve said it plenty of times and it never gets old: walking into the Fertitta Center is best-case hellish for opposing teams. Make it an in-state rivalry on national TV, and the Longhorns are in for a tough start today. They struggled with the Cougars in Austin three weeks ago, trailing by 8 at the break, so I see this as a cheap number with the flip of venue.

Houston still leads the country in average first-half margin, both overall and at home, with their five Big12 home games averaging a 17.6 point halftime lead. Texas is a good first half team themselves, but I think the style matchup really favors the Cougars here. Texas lives and dies by the three a little too much, and are up against the country’s 6th-best three-point defense. It’s also the best overall defense in the country, so I think Houston can lean on that to establish a solid early lead.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Robert Morris/Wright State Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+

Wright State has had a whole week to stew over a home loss to Oakland, and should be looking to take it out on someone. Robert Morris is a good victim, as the Colonials are extremely weak defensively at 321st in adjusted efficiency and 323rd in effective field goal defense.

So catching Wright State and their elite offense in a bounce-back spot is going to be rough on them. The biggest mismatch is Robert Morris’ two-point percentage defense that ranks 337th nationally against Wright State’s 5th-best two-point shooting. But the Raiders play almost no defense themselves, ranked 350th in adjusted efficiency and 356th in effective field goal defense.

Wright State also plays with their hair on fire on a normal day, ranked 34th in adjusted tempo, and the situational spot should dial up that pace even more. These teams played to 177 points in the first meeting and KenPom has today’s rematch at 167 points, so I’m going over here.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Fordham @ Dayton -15 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:30 PM CT on CBSSN

My typical concern with Dayton is around their offense that falls too much in love with perimeter shots. I’m not concerned about that today, as the Flyers should take advantage of a terrible Fordham defense. The Rams are 348th nationally in three-point percentage defense, so the country’s 7th-best three-point shooting team should have a field day, especially in their own gym where the Flyers shoot it far better. Fordham also has a big fouling problem, committing the 24th-most per game, so those easy points really help to bolster leads. When Dayton wants to run a team out they do, and with KenPom setting this at a 19-point advantage, I’ll lay it with the home team.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Dakota St/Denver Over 156.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

This total is probably getting held down by the previous meeting only getting to 148 points, but today should be a lot different. That game is an outlier result for how these teams play, as they combined to shoot just 25% from deep. North Dakota State is 12th in the country for three-point percentage, while Denver is 30th, so that should improve dramatically. Especially when you consider that the Bison are 321st in defending the three while the Pioneers are 350th. At elevation where Denver will set a fast pace and conference games are averaging 164.8 PPG, expect plenty of scoring in this rematch.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Providence First Half Team Total Over 38.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on FS1

Providence is squarely on the bubble, meaning they can’t afford to leave any doubt against the worst power conference team in the country. They certainly didn’t in the first meeting a month ago, putting up 47 before halftime on their way to a 100-spot. The Friars have bigger fish to fry (see what I did there) though coming up this week, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they took their foot off the gas later in this game.

The number here is favorable though, as DePaul is 355th in first half points allowed, giving up 40.6 on the road this year. The Blue Demons are allowing 42.8 first half points against Big East teams not named Georgetown, with opponents going 8-4 over this total. They’ll continue to turn it over at a high rate against this elite Providence defense, and continue to play no defense as usual. Providence can name their number here if they want to, and I think they take their bubble status seriously in a statement performance.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2053-1854 ATS (+101.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.