Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Atlanta Hawks Over 245.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-BA
I’m surprised to see this total coming down from the opener north of 250, so keep an eye out for stars on either team resting in this back-to-back spot for both squads. But the no rest factor is big for me, especially with these teams struggling so much defensively. Combined on the year the Warriors and Hawks are 11-5 to the over when playing on no rest, as well as 22nd and 28th, respectively, in defensive rating. Both teams are playing a style lately that’s more in line with what you’d typically think of for them, so this should get over the total barring significant absences.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Houston/Kansas First Half Under 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN
This should be a hard-fought battle, especially early on as two Big12 contenders get a feel for each other in this game. That should slow down the pace and the scoring, especially with two elite defenses squaring off. Houston is unquestionably the best defense in the country, and allows the fewest points before halftime.
Their top-rated two-point percentage defense will slow down a Kansas squad that’s very reliant on interior scoring. And the Cougars usually struggle to bring their shooting on the road, and a raucous Phog Allen is a tough place for visitors to shoot anyway. I think that keeps this game at a grind early on, and I want to avoid foul-game points late in what should be a tight game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma/UCF First Half Under 63 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Very quietly, these are two elite defenses squaring off in Orlando today. Oklahoma ranks 14th and UCF is 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, so these teams can lock down on the defensive end. And for UCF the struggle is real offensively, ranked 280th in effective field goal percentage. Oklahoma is much better offensively, but they’re very reliant on scoring inside the arc where UCF ranks 24th in opponent two-point percentage. The Knights have been finding out the hard way how tough the Big12 is, and this should be another slow start to a conference game for them.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Samford/Chattanooga Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on ESPN+
Both of these teams are excellent in their own way offensively, and I think it justifies this high total. For an under-the-radar game like this, a high total is usually a sign that we’re in for a track meet, and that’s what Samford can deliver if their 10th-fastest adjusted tempo dictates the game.
That should speed up an excellent Chattanooga offense that is one of the best two-point shooting teams in the country. But the three’s should be flying in this one, as both are heavily reliant on the three-ball and Samford shoots at the 4th-best percentage from deep in the country. Pace and excellent shooting should combine to fuel a shootout in this one as long as shots are dropping.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke @ North Carolina -4.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on ESPN
When Duke and North Carolina face off it’s always the game of the week, even on a loaded day of college basketball like this. So that creates a lot of attention and action on the game which I think is creating advantageous numbers. North Carolina is simply the better team here, their loss at Georgia Tech notwithstanding, and that game also puts them in a big bounce-back spot against their arch rival.
The Heels have the superior defense in this one, which is going to matter more with Duke having to go on the road for this meeting. UNC should slow down the hot perimeter shooting for Duke that’s been built up against a fairly weak ACC schedule to this point. With KenPom projecting this as a 6-point margin in favor of Carolina, I’ll lay the number that’s being held down by heavy two-way action on a high profile game.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Duke/North Carolina Under 152.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
The other thing that such a high profile game creates is public action on the total. Everyone wants to watch this storied rivalry and root for points, but I don’t think this many are coming. Nobody is properly accounting for UNC’s defensive evolution this season, ranked 4th nationally in adjusted efficiency. Duke can defend in their own right as a top-30 unit in adjusted efficiency, and will also prefer to slow the tempo today. With these teams a combined 14-5 to the under in ACC play, I’ll go under what I think is an inflated total.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) San Diego/Santa Clara First Half Over 75.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game should be all gas and no brakes, especially to start as these teams have ramped up the pace in conference play. San Diego was always a guarantee to play fast under Steve Lavin, but their offense was abysmal for most of the season. It’s finally turning around now as a young team has figured some things out, and their WCC games are 6-2 over this first half total while averaging 81.5 points. Santa Clara has been giving up a ton of points in WCC first halves, but can also score with just about anyone and should light up a bad Toreros defense. Both teams want to play fast, so look for a fast start in what looks more like a pick-up game.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 2012-1807 ATS (+101.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.