Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT

I plan on taking full advantage of this Lakers road trip that has a few games left on it. This team just continues to cash overs away from Los Angeles, padding the league’s best road over record with three straight to start their current trip. The past five road games for them have all flown over this total with an average of 250.0 points in regulation.

Overs in general have been a great bet with the Lakers lately though, as they’re on 7-game run of going over tonight’s total. They’re up against arguably the most potent offense in the league tonight, so I’m not seeing much reason for the streak to end now. Boston isn’t a great over team, but they did get into a 241-point affair in LA on Christmas, so this rematch with the Lakers on the road should see another over cash.

NBA (0.75 Unit) Utah Jazz Team Total Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on TNT

I’m glad the Jazz are back home because this is a fun offense back in Salt Lake City. While the Jazz trend toward the over in general, isolating them at home has been extremely profitable this season. That’s where they’re 17-4 over their team total, compared to 13-15 on the road. It’s all about their style of play that sees them ramp up the tempo to a full 3 additional possessions per game.

That in turn boosts their offensive rating a full 8 points, so it’s no surprise that Utah has gone over this team total in 7 straight home games while averaging 132.4 PPG in that stretch. Philadelphia comes in tonight very banged up, and their weak bench will have to log a lot of minutes. That should help the Jazz continue to score at will in their own building, pushing them over this team total.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee/Purdue-Fort Wayne Over 163 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you see anyone playing defense in this game it will be entirely accidental. Especially from the Milwaukee side as the Panthers are 345th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They’re also 302nd in opponent effective field goal rate and 347th in three-point percentage allowed. So it’s no surprise that Horizon opponents are averaging 81.6 PPG against them, even in a league with lots of offensively challenged programs.

Fort Wayne is not one of those programs though, as they’re an excellent shooting team albeit somewhat inefficient. I don’t think that will matter too much against the weak Milwaukee defense, especially since IPFW relies so heavily on the three-ball. The Mastodons are having real trouble stopping any offense with a pulse lately though, giving up a ton of easy baskets, so that should help push this over the high total.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Wisconsin/Nebraska Over 144.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on BTN

I’m really surprised by this total for several reasons, and I think we’ll see a fun game that flies over this number. These teams got into an 88-72 track meet in their first meeting in Madison last month, and that’s not entirely abnormal for the Badgers this season. Wisconsin has a completely new personality this season, owning the country’s 5th-best offense by adjusted efficiency.

While Wisconsin is still slow-paced, Nebraska’s up-tempo style at home should ramp up that high efficiency from the Badgers. And Nebraska’s shooting will really improve today being in Lincoln, which has shown in their other conference home games. In their five Big10 home contests, the over is 4-0-1 with an average of 151.8 points.

If there’s one glaring weakness for Wisconsin it’s their perimeter defense, ranked 313th in opponent three-point percentage, so Nebraska’s reliance on outside shots should pay dividends. These teams are a combined 16-4 to the over their past 10 games, often the result of totals like this that don’t account for Wisconsin’s elite offense, so I’m taking the over again here.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2007-1805 ATS (+98.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.