Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) KC Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on CBS

There are a lot of reasons to like this Ravens team today, but I’m staying away from a rising full-game number that creates a big back door for Patrick Mahomes to sneak into. But from their all-pro quarterback, to their top-rated defense, to their amazing record against winning teams, this Baltimore squad is exceptional.

They’re also exceptional early in games, owning the league’s best average first half margin. The Ravens should be able to run with ease against a Chiefs defense that’s 28th in rush EPA per play, controlling the game from the start, leading to a healthy halftime margin.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Chiefs/Ravens Second Half Under 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Whether you’re able to bet this before the game starts or find a similar number at halftime, it’s a play that I think is flying under the radar despite some crazy trends around it. Chiefs games this season are now 17-2 to the under on the second half total, including 18-1 under the 4th quarter total.

KC owns the best scoring defense in second halves, and they also struggle to score with the 6th-fewest points after half. Combine that with a game script that I see as Baltimore trying to drain the clock with a lead, and we should see another under come in on a favorable number here.

NFL (0.75 Unit) San Francisco 49ers First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FOX

I get the sense that rainy conditions and the rust factor combined to give Brock Purdy and the 49ers their bad game last week, but that they probably got it out of the way. I expect a bounce back from Purdy and the offense in ideal weather conditions today, against one of the most forgiving defenses in the league.

It’s really tough to run on Detroit, so I see the 49ers throwing early and often against a Lions secondary that is 29th in PFF coverage grade, 30th in dropback EPA/play, and 32nd in allowing explosive plays. San Francisco has the most efficient passing offense in the league, so don’t overthink the matchup or bad game last week. The 49ers should return to form today, which means reaching their average first-half scoring of 15.2 PPG.

Sunday NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Lamar Jackson Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Gus Edwards Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Justice Hill Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mark Andrews Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Anytime TD (+110)

0.5 Unit – Gus Edwards Anytime TD (+140)

1 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Under 18.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – George Kittle Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Brandon Aiyuk Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.25 Unit – George Kittle 75+ Receiving Yards (+140)

0.25 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs 40+ Receiving Yards (+270)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 2000-1785 ATS (+104.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.