Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Cleveland Browns/Houston Texans Over 44.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:30 PM CT on NBC

Why go against perfection? The Browns are a perfect 8-0 to the over in road games this season, and it hasn’t been particularly close either. Those games are averaging 54.0 points per game and clearing the posted total by 15.1 points on average, including the 36-22 shootout in Houston on Christmas Eve. The Texans had the unfortunate distinction of lining Davis Mills and Case Keenum under center for that game and it still flew over. With the golden child CJ Stroud back for Houston they’re offense can take advantage of the league’s most forgiving road defense, sending the game over this moderate total.

NFL (1 Unit) Miami Dolphins/KC Chiefs Under 44 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Peacock

It’s not perfection I’m rolling with here, but an 83% trend that I’d say is good enough. That’s the rate games go under at Arrowhead the past two seasons, a product of totals being inflated to account for Mahomes and Co’s perception. But we haven’t seen much of that perception be validated this season, and I think it results in another under here.

The conditions of brutal cold for this game certainly play a factor, as I think it encourages both teams to stick to the ground game more. Miami should be able to chew up yards and clock on the ground against a Chiefs defense that’s 27th in rush DVOA. The brick-handed Chiefs receivers in icy temps is a recipe for more drops, so I see KC keeping it on the ground as well. That should shorten this game and keep it under once again at Arrowhead.

NFL Saturday Wild Card Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 242.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Joe Flacco Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Nico Collins Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – David Njoku Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Under 56.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.25 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (+115)

NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors/Milwaukee Bucks Over 245.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV

It’s possible we’re seeing a bit of the old Warriors lately, as their offense has really picked up, their tempo has quickened, and the Splash Brothers appear to be splashing more shots. That and a lack of defense has caused their games to get a little crazy, with the past 7 averaging 248.1 points. Golden State is once again one of the better over teams in the league at 23-15, and they have the 3rd-highest plus/minus to the total in road games.

The Warriors are also just 24th in defensive efficiency this season, so this will not be a lock-down defensive battle with Milwaukee at 19th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks are also going to want to push tempo, as they play to the second-most possessions per game in the league at home this year. The Warriors are on a back-to-back after a high-possessions game in Chicago last night, so look for their tired legs but improving offense to help get this over the high total.

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Penn State/Purdue Over 151.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:15 PM CT on BTN

Everyone is expecting a blowout by Purdue here after they dropped their last game at Nebraska on Tuesday. I definitely think that’s possible given their tendency the past few years to step on the next opponent after a loss, but I’m more confident that the style of game brings it over the total. The Boilers will be pushing offensively in this one to atone for Tuesday’s loss, and won’t have trouble against Penn State’s defense.

The Nittany Lions have had no answer for Big10 offenses now that they don’t get to pick on the cupcakes from their 330th-rated non-conference schedule. Their conference opponents have averaged 80.4 PPG, and this Purdue offense is light years ahead of what they’ve seen so far. Purdue is second in adjusted offensive efficiency and scoring 89.6 PPG at home, so they should score at will. With Penn State also playing more up-tempo this season under Mike Rhoades, look for this one to cruise over the total today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1919-1723 ATS (+88.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.