Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Houston Rockets -7 @ Detroit Pistons (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit
Detroit had a nice little run there for awhile where they looked slightly less incompetent. But that was short-lived, and now they’re without Cade Cunningham as he deals with a knee injury. Consecutive home losses by 20-plus points, including to lowly San Antonio on Wednesday night, have really highlighted the awfulness of this team.
I think that continues here against a Houston squad in need of a bounce back after two tough road losses. The Rockets already blew out a full-strength Pistons team by 23, and while that was at home, Little Caesars Arena really offers no home court advantage. The Pistons are just 5-12-1 ATS at home with terrible average margins, so expect them to get rolled again tonight.
NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Utah Jazz Over 240.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Sportsnet
This total has been flying upwards since the open, and there’s still plenty of value at the current number. These new-look Raptors just won’t stop cashing overs, now 6-1 to the over since their big trade with the Knicks, with those games averaging 250.4 points. Utah has been playing better lately and are a good team at home, but I still don’t trust that defense against this Toronto style. But a surging Jazz offense can get what they want against the Raptors defense that’s allowed 124.6 PPG since the trade, and that should carry this game over the total.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Minnesota +4.5 @ Indiana (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
Fade the best ATS team in the country at your own risk, but I’m backing the Gophers here to stay competitive or even pull the upset. Minnesota is seemingly never out of a game, proven by them ranking 26th in average second-half margin and having several late surges to close out games. This is a much better shooting team than anyone gives them credit for, and put away Maryland on Sunday despite struggling to make anything from deep.
Minnesota’s excellent two-point shooting should have success here against an Indiana defense that is not what it’s been now that Trayce Jackson-Davis is gone. I think there’s a lot of perception in this number given the name brand value attached to both schools. But with KenPom and other metrics sites projecting it as a one-possession game, I’ll take the points.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Purdue Fort Wayne Team Total Over 79 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The Robert Morris defense has really been exposed in recent weeks, especially against teams with up-tempo and efficient offenses. That’s exactly what Fort Wayne will bring tonight, as the Mastodons have the 24th-shortest offensive possession length in the country and are shooting extremely well.
One of the biggest keys here though should be turnovers and run-outs that lead to IPFW points. They generate the 4th-most steals in the country, and Robert Morris happens to be 304th in taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of transition points and easy two’s for the Mastodons against the 353rd-ranked two-point percentage defense. So I like isolating this team total in what should be a higher-scoring game given IPFW’s own defensive issues lately.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1917-1721 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.