Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Milwaukee Bucks 1st Half Over 118.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on TNT
This first half total is misaligned with the full-game total, being less than half of that 242.5 number which has not been the typical way NBA first halves get lined this season. It’s especially surprising because we have the Celtics who lead the league in first-half scoring, both overall and on the road, against the Bucks who are 5th overall and 3rd at home. Milwaukee is also 26th in first-half scoring allowed, including in their own building, so points are coming in this game.
The Celtics are on a back-to-back with travel here after the Wolves took them to OT last night, so their defensive legs won’t be all there. But their elite offense will still score easily on a Bucks squad that’s just 20th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks are also looking to bounce back after an awful showing against Utah on Monday. Damian Lillard is back from missing that game, so it should be all systems go for this fast-paced Milwaukee team, and I think it results in a lot of early scoring.
NBA (0.5 Unit) NY Knicks -3.5 @ Dallas Mavericks (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:30 PM CT on MSG
The Knicks have turned into a rocket ship in the new year, and I’m taking at least one more ride with them against a beat-up Mavericks team. Dallas will be without Luka Doncic tonight, the biggest name on the laundry list of injuries for this team. I just don’t think Dallas’ collection of backups has a chance against a Knicks squad that has gone 5-0 straight up and ATS since acquiring OG Anunoby, wrecking teams by 20.4 points on average. The Knicks are also 6-2 ATS as a road favorite this season, with one of the best margins of victory and ATS margins, so I’ll back them on this short number against the shorthanded Mavs.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) FAU/Tulane Over 161.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This is a total I expected to see closer to the 170-point range since Tulane is at home, so I’m jumping on the over with excellent offenses matching up. The Green Wave have played some wild games this season, particularly at home, and it’s mostly thanks to their hair-on-fire style. They play at the 17th-fastest adjusted tempo, with their offensive possessions being the 10th-fastest in the country.
When you combine that with Tulane’s excellent shooting, ranking 8th in effective field goal rate and 4th in two-point percentage, it’s a recipe for points on any night. Now add in FAU’s elite offense, ranked 10th in adjusted efficiency and 17th in effective field goal rate, going against Tulane’s mediocre-at-best defense. Speed the game up to Tulane’s preferred pace, and this has a great chance to get to that 170-range like most metrics sites are projecting.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UCLA @ Utah -8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This UCLA team is in the process of falling off a cliff, and it’s a direct result of having basically no offense. The Bruins rank 216th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it’s the shooting that is most concerning. They’re all the way down at 333rd in effective field goal rate, 331st from downtown, and 323rd from inside the arc. While their defense is still good, it’s not good enough to compensate for that lack of offense, so consider them the Jets of college football.
It’s especially not good enough when facing an excellent offensive team like Utah, as the Utes are 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and are lethal from long range. They’ll be happy to return home from a tough Arizona road trip, and should really push tempo here against a coastal school that will have trouble with the elevation. I see enough shots falling for Utah that they’ll be able to pull away from a Bruins team that will really struggle to score.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1915-1719 ATS (+88.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.