Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
The weirdness of Week 18 means the Vikings might actually end up winning this game. But I think it would have to be a pretty significant comeback based on how I’m expecting the Lions to approach the game. Dan Campbell is probably still heated over the extra-point shenanigans in Dallas last week, and I would think he has this team fired up to come out strong.
The expectation is that Jared Goff and a lot of other starters will play early in this game, giving Detroit a big edge over the Vikings for the first half. The Lions are one of the higher-scoring first half teams in the league, while the Viking struggle to score early in road games, so I’ll count on Detroit having the motivation to put it on a division foe early today.
NFL (0.75 Unit) NY Jets @ New England Patriots -1.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Not much about this game is likely to be pretty given how bad both of these teams are, especially in the weather that’s hitting Boston today. But it’s simply not fathomable to me that Bill Belichick, in possibly his last game with the Patriots, is going to lose to (que the Big Daddy meme) the g-d Jets. He never loses to this team, winning the last 15 meetings and 24 of the past 28, so they are not beating him in his likely farewell game. Throw all other factors out the window, it’s a bet on principle here.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals Over 47.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX
Targeting the Cardinals defense has been one of the easier bets this season, as teams have scored 20-plus on them in all but two games. This is the worst defense in the league by many metrics, and has real trouble with teams that can spread them out like Seattle with their elite receiver group.
But the Seahawks have also fallen off a cliff defensively, allowing 30 points to Mason Rudolph last week in a must-win spot. This Arizona offense has become dangerous as Kyler Murray builds rapport with his receivers, and they’re playing YOLO football with a lot of confidence right now. That’s dangerous for Seattle and their slim playoff hopes, so I think it results in a shootout in the desert today.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Buffalo Bills/Miami Dolphins Under 48.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
This is too high a total for a playoff-type environment, especially with how these teams have been playing recently. The Dolphins offense has really come back to earth thanks to a ton of injuries and defenses starting to play them differently. Miami’s finesse doesn’t respond well to physical defense, which is what the Bills can bring to South Beach today.
And the Buffalo offense has gone through a major shift in recent weeks as well, really slowing the pace under new OC Joe Brady. They’ve also turned into a very run-heavy team, averaging 37 run plays per game under Brady compared to just 25 under Ken Dorsey. With Miami also needing to focus more on the run due to their injury concerns, this should be a game where the clock keeps ticking and the points are tough to come by.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Maryland @ Minnesota -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 4:30 PM CT on BTN
When are the Gophers going to get any respect? I mean seriously, how many straight home covers does it take, because 11 apparently isn’t enough. This game is lined fairly short because these teams are 79th and 80th at KenPom, but even he has the Gophers as a 3-point favorite. I’ve seen Minnesota projected as high as 8-point favorites at other metrics sites though, and I agree that they can win comfortably here.
It’s really about a lack of offense for Maryland, as the Terps really struggle to shoot, especially from deep. Their offense has been very disjointed all season and does not travel, as they’ve scored just 57.2 PPG away from home, 8th-lowest in the entire country. This Minnesota offense is sneaky-good, especially inside the arc, and I think they keep this season’s momentum rolling for another home cover.
Degenerates
NCAA Football Montana vs South Dakota State -13.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 1:00 PM CT on ABC
If you pay attention to Jeff Sagarin’s site, he has South Dakota State 19th in his college football ratings. That’s 19th nationally, including all of FBS, right in between USC and Oregon State. That’s how good this team has been, and their 14-0 record with a 28.6 point average margin should speak for itself. Montana has needed overtime and double OT in their past two games just to get here, so they might be a little fraudulent. As the longtime producer of my podcast and SDSU grad Peppy would say, let’s get Jacked Up, I’m laying the points here.
Tiny Nick is 1908-1714 ATS (+87.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.