Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans -1.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:15 PM CT on ABC
I really think the Colts are one of the more fraudulent teams in the league, and that should reveal itself tonight. Indy has one win since Week 3 against a team that currently owns a winning record, beating the Trubisky-led Steelers a few weeks ago. And if you dig into luck-based metrics, the Colts are the second-most fortunate team in the league.
We saw the difference for Houston with CJ Stroud back under center last week, and he should shred an Indy defense that plays a ton of Cover 3 and can’t pressure the quarterback. The Texans are pretty banged up but have played like the better team all season, and I think they punch their playoff ticket tonight.
Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
1 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 261.5 Passing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Nico Collins Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Alec Pierce Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kylen Granson Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Nico Collins Anytime TD (+130)
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on NBCS-PHI
Once again I’m targeting the Jazz as a fade candidate for a road first half. They showed why they’re one of the worst in the NBA in that situation last night as they were down 31 at half to Boston. Now they have to go on a back-to-back against an angry Sixers team. Philly was run off their own floor by the Knicks last night, and I’m sure will be looking to take it out on someone. They’re one of the league’s better first-half teams at home with a plus-5.7 average margin, and the extra motivation should get them to cover this early number.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) San Diego @ Gonzaga -13.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW
Gonzaga came through for me the other night in their first half bounce-back spot, now I’m going back to the well with them. It’s not as glaringly obvious a situation tonight, but still a spot where I think they dominate. That’s mostly because of the opponent, with San Diego looking more and more like the weakling they were expected to be in a rebuilding year.
The Toreros just don’t have the offense to keep up here, ranking 261st in adjusted efficiency and being very turnover prone. That will especially be a problem with San Diego playing an up-tempo style that the Zags will love on their home floor. The Toreros have visited two other upper-tier programs this year, trailing at half by 16 at Stanford and 17 at Utah State. The Bulldogs are far better than either of those and will stomp on another outmatched WCC opponent here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1902-1711 ATS (+84.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.