Locks

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Northwestern @ Illinois -5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on BTN

This line seems like it’s being held down by the recent suspension of Illinois star Terrence Shannon, but I don’t believe it will matter that much. The Illini are just too good, as well as being very underappreciated so far this year. They can beat you in a lot of different ways, whether it’s dominant interior defense, big rebounding edges, or getting out in transition.

I think that’s too much for a Northwestern team that isn’t a consistent enough shooting team to compete with this defense. KenPom and other metrics sites have this as more of a double-digit Illini victory, and I think they handle little brother in this in-state rivalry.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/Colorado State Over 155.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on FS1

By raw numbers, New Mexico is having a great season on defense, which is a departure from Lobos teams of recent years. I think they’re about to get a rude awakening as they start conference play here against one of the best offenses in the country. Colorado State is head and shoulders above any other offense the Lobos have faced, ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency and 3rd in effective field goal rate.

And the Rams are always much better offensively at home, where they also tend to push tempo and wear out opponents in the high altitude. New Mexico is no stranger to a fast pace as they’re 13th in adjusted tempo, so we should see these teams get out and run. With excellent back court scorers on both teams, this should be an offensive-oriented game that cashes the high over.

Degenerates

NCAA Basketball Cornell/Baylor Over 165.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

If you have the stones to take the over on sky-high totals in college hoops, then this is the game for you. I’ll be on the over because of several factors that make me believe both teams will have great offensive showings.

Baylor ran into a couple of great defensive teams away from home that slowed their offensive momentum, but this is still the country’s third-best adjusted efficiency offense, with the second-best effective field goal rate and top three-point shooting percentage. They’re not up against a particularly solid defense here, as Cornell checks in at 232nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

But the Big Red are extremely fast-paced, ranking 20th in adjusted tempo with the fifth-fastest offensive possession length. They’re also the nation’s top two-point percentage offense, which has been a vulnerability for Baylor’s defense. That should create lots of quick and easy buckets from both teams, putting this high total within reach.

Tiny Nick is 1892-1699 ATS (+84.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.