Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/LA Angels GM 1 First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-125; Odds via BetMGM): 3:07 PM CT on Bally Sports West
Today has turned into a doubleheader for both LA teams as they try to get ahead of the incoming tropical storm. That might mean both of these squads are a little eager to get the games over with, and I think this first one will certainly be quick. That will be thanks to excellent starting pitching going for both teams, as well as their tendency to both go ice cold at the plate.
The better of the two starters is obviously Tyler Glasnow, and he’s been dominant lately in posting a 1.63 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his past 6 starts. This Angels lineup outside of Shohei really struggles against righties, and Glasnow should shut them down. But the sneaky angle here is the strength of Chase Silseth for LA, who has been excellent since getting promoted to a starter role. His 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in those 4 starts is extra impressive considering the opponents, and I think he slows down the Tampa bats to keep this low-scoring early.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Miami Marlins/LA Dodgers GM 2 Over 8 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
An aspect of this year’s Dodger team that’s different from last season is they’re a very prideful and tight-knit group, so I can’t imagine that getting embarrassed last night is sitting well. This might be a game where they erupt and get close to this total on their own, especially against a left-handed starter. Even though Braxton Garrett has been strong lately, the Dodgers continue to lead the league in scoring against lefties.
They’re also in the top-3 of every other metric, and I think they get the bats going in this game. But I’ll continue to expect run production from Miami against a lefty starter in Julio Urias, as the Marlins continue to lead the league in batting average against lefties. The strength of Garrett and Urias is holding this total down, but there’s too much offensive potential and weak relievers in this matchup for the total to be this low.
NFL (0.25 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 @ LA Rams (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT No TV
With two teams squaring off here that are expected to be bad this season, the number is telling the story. The Raiders laying over a field goal on the road is designed to prevent you from backing them here, but I think this is a runaway by Vegas.
As bad teams with new coaches tend to do, the Raiders have been dominant in the preseason under Josh McDaniels, going 5-0 so far with a 13.6 point average margin of victory. The Rams aren’t playing any of their key players tonight, could not stop the run last week, and will face a Raiders team looking to keep it on the ground. This could get ugly, so I’ll lay the points with the visitors.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1454-1291 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.