Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Washington Nationals Team Total Over 5 (-105; Odds via Caesars): 12:35 PM CT on MASN
The Nationals going against a bad left-handed starter is a gift that has to be exploited, simple as that. It’s not just Oakland starter Ken Waldichuk and his 7.84 ERA on the road either, it’s also the league’s worst bullpen that the Nats will get to face once Waldichuk is pulled. Washington is a top-5 offense against lefties no matter how you slice it, and are leading baseball for weighted runs created in that split. Win or lose, I think Washington gets theirs at the plate today against such awful pitching.
MLB (0.5 Unit) San Diego Padres -1.5 @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+125; Odds via BetMGM): 3:10 PM CT on ARID
The Diamondbacks finally got off their 9-game slide yesterday in a fairly predictable spot with Zac Gallen on the mound. But their starter today is no Zac Gallen, as they’ll send Brandon Pfaadt back out who has been hammered at home this year. The Arizona righty owns an 8.65 ERA and .339 opponent batting average at Chase Field, and despite San Diego’s issues against righties I have to trust that even they can jump on Pfaadt here.
If the Padres can provide some run support to Seth Lugo today, then he should hold down the ice cold Diamondback bats. They only have a cumulative .174 average and .474 OPS against the San Diego righty, and Lugo has been much better on the road this year. Arizona has only reached 5 runs once in their past 14 games as this offense continues to crater, and if their bad pitcher struggles again they should get crushed by the Padres here.
WNBA (1 Unit) NY Liberty/Indiana Fever First Half Over 83.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 2:00 PM CT on ESPN
The league’s second-best offense takes on the second-worst defense to wrap up the season series, and I think it means more points early. The Liberty continue to excel in first halves and they’ll likely be the driver of scoring here. But the Fever can score themselves, and have proven it against New York this season. The first three meetings between these teams have all flown over this total with scores of 97, 89, and most recently 104 points. Each second half slowed down considerably, so there’s a very predictable pattern here, and I’m very surprised to see the first half number this low.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm -1.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:00 PM CT on NBATV
Just going off their recent results, you’d have to say this Mercury team appears to be figuring things out. All their talent has finally gelled and gotten them to score 90-plus points in 4 straight games. Except all of those games have been at home, where going back a month they’re on a 6-1 straight up run.
Coincidentally that one loss was to this Seattle team, but also consider that Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in that same time frame on the road, scoring 13.7 fewer PPG. The Mercury are just 3-11 ATS on the road all season, as well as 0-3 straight up and ATS against the Storm this year. This is a cheap price to bet on the Mercury to fall on their face away from home once again.
WNBA (1 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ Las Vegas Aces -16.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Alright, that’s it, enough messing around with this Aces team that keeps zigging when I zag on first half bets. This is a great spot for the Aces to crush a tired and poorly-performing Atlanta team. I don’t care that Las Vegas has a revenge spot coming up on Thursday against the Liberty, as they smashed this Dream squad in the game right before their embarrassing blowout in New York.
I don’t think Atlanta has the legs for this one, as they just played in LA last night and have had tough travel the past several days. The Dream have really struggled on the road lately, scoring 9.7 PPG below their season average the past 6 contests while going 0-6 ATS. And the Aces have had no trouble scoring on their third-most forgiving defense with 92 and 93 points in the two meetings. I think Vegas also clamps down the defense here after a very poor showing on Friday, and that should lead to another blowout.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1446-1282 ATS (+70.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.