Locks
MLB (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Twins -1.5 @ KC Royals (-105; Odds via Caesars): 7:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I’m a little concerned about recent starts from Sonny Gray that have resulted in a 1-3 record and 4.94 ERA this month. But the Kansas City Royals are a great cure for problems that any player and/or team are having, and the Twins should continue to roll against them. While trends don’t last forever, the fact that the Twins are 9-1 both straight up and on the run line against KC this year is pretty glaring, posting a plus-33 run differential to boot.
I don’t see much reason why that can’t continue tonight, even with Royals starter Brady Singer having some sneaky-good performances this year. But he has real trouble with this Twins lineup which is batting a cumulative .358 with a 1.114 OPS off Singer in his career. The Royals are also terrible against right-handed pitching, so it’s no surprise that Gray has only allowed a career .187 average and .493 OPS to their lineup. If the Minnesota bats stay hot like they have post All-Star break, then they should roll over the pitiful Royals again.
MLB (1.25 Unit) Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cardinals Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Bally Sports MW
There isn’t long until the Cubs – and maybe even the Cardinals – become sellers at the deadline and turn into very different teams. Until then though, I’m continuing to bet on these offenses taking advantage of poor pitching which I see as the case today.
It’s been the case for most of the season series, as they’re 8-2 over this total while averaging 10.2 runs. These teams have also been in slugfests lately, going a combined 19-3 over tonight’s total since the All-Star break.
On that alone I’m ready to continue betting overs between these squads, especially with very hot weather and winds blowing out at Busch Stadium tonight. Also add in that Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery has been crushed by the Cubs twice this season, and expected Chicago starter Drew Smyly has a 9.43 ERA his past 5 starts. That should all lead to another easy over on a pretty low number.
MLB (0.25 Unit) Texas Rangers ML @ San Diego Padres (+140; Odds via Caesars): 8:40 PM CT on ESPN+
Why are the Padres getting this kind of respect from odds makers? This team is a sub-.500 train wreck and rumored to be selling at the deadline, so being a significant favorite against the excellent Rangers doesn’t make a ton of sense. I think it’s why the market has come in so significantly on Texas here to drive the price down, but I still like the big return and want to take a shot with the underdog.
I can understand from a starting pitching perspective that Joe Musgrove is a far more name-brand pitcher than Dane Dunning, and he has been pretty successful at home this season. But the Padres have had issues giving him run support, and I think he’ll need it against this elite Rangers offense. With San Diego also hilariously bad against right-handed pitching considering their talent, the Rangers should right in this game to the end and I think they take it.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit) Texas Rangers +0.5 First 5 Innings (+100; Odds via Caesars)
If the Padres do have those struggles with providing run support, then I think the worst case scenario might be a tie game after 5 innings. That would cash this bet, and even though I think the Rangers have a solid chance to be leading at that point, I’ll take the insurance of still winning on a tied game.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/LA Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:10 PM CT on SportsNet LA
Both of these teams need to pull themselves out of miniature slumps offensively, and I think tonight’s game presents an excellent opportunity. I’m not sure what happened to the Dodger offense during the majority of their series with Toronto, but they definitely will not see the same level of pitching here. Brandon Williamson for the Reds is far outperforming his expected metrics, and has already been rocked by the LA lineup this year.
I think the Dodgers get back on track offensively against that poor Cincinnati pitching staff, and they’ll need to with Bobby Miller likely to struggle. The Dodger rookie is a long way from his strong debut, compiling a 6.82 ERA over his past 6 starts, and in the 3 of those at home it’s a 9.98 ERA. The Reds should be able to bounce back from facing Milwaukee’s pitching which always stymies them, get back to normal, and help push this game over the total.
WNBA (0.5 Unit) Minnesota Lynx @ NY Liberty -8.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ION
I have to continue betting the angle of the Lynx struggling against upper-tier opponents. Minnesota just keeps having problems against teams above them in the standings, especially early in games. In their past 5 games against teams with better records, the Lynx have trailed at half each time by an average 13-point deficit.
The Liberty are a team that can run up the score on just about anyone and are one of the best first half teams in the league, evidenced by them averaging 51.5 points in the first half of their past 6 games. I just don’t see the Lynx keeping up with that kind of offensive production, so they should trail by a significant margin at half again tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Lynx/Liberty First Half Over 86.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
It’s an odd scheduling situation here with this being a make-up game from early June, putting the Liberty on a back-to-back. I mentioned last night how they’ve been struggling defensively, and no rest won’t help those issues. But if New York is going to keep scoring in that 51.5 range for first halves, then it doesn’t take much to reach this number and I think these teams do it tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1422-1252 ATS (+73.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.