Locks

MLB (1 Unit) LA Dodgers/Texas Rangers Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 1:35 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

There’s just no stopping these two offenses against each other, especially not with a matchup of middling starting pitchers. All I’ve seen out of Emmet Sheehan in his past few starts is a young pitcher who’s getting figured out by major league hitters. With one of the most talented lineups in the league, Texas should be no different than the past 3 opponents who have gotten to Sheehan and created easy over games.

And the regression should keep coming for Martin Perez today, as his expected ERA of 5.59 will put him in trouble against a Dodgers team that just keeps piling up runs against lefties. It’s getting tougher and tougher to explain how LA can score so well off poor hitting against lefty pitching, but the results were there on Friday night and should be again today. These teams keep racking up the runs with the best and 3rd best over records in the league, and this should be no different.

MLB (0.5 Unit) Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:10 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

Last week, the Twins went on the road and put up 7 runs against impressive Seattle rookie Bryan Woo. If the Minnesota lineup with their road woes can do that, then Toronto shouldn’t have much problem putting up runs either. The Jays are among the league leaders in every key metric against righties like Woo, and I think they do their part here to reach this low total.

Truthfully though, they might not need to given the disaster they’re sending to the mound today. For at least one more game we get to fade Alek Manoah, and today I think the best way is via expecting runs. His solid return to the majors was short-lived, as the usual version showed back up against the Padres. There have been some unusually high-scoring games in Seattle lately, and with vulnerable pitchers like these I have to expect another today.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1410-1244 ATS (+69.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.