Locks
MLB (1 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Baltimore Orioles Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:05 PM CT on MASN
A couple of bad pitchers fueled an over in the first game of this series, and that should happen again tonight. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for Baltimore, and while he’s the better pitcher in this matchup he has still posted a 5.54 ERA in his past 5 starts so is not in the best form. The deep and hot Cincinnati offense has been held in check for two games, but are primed to break out.
The big gas can for this game though is Luke Weaver who starts for the Reds tonight. Weaver exemplifies the starting pitching issues facing the Reds, and has been crushed lately. The Reds righty owns a 9.27 ERA and 1.97 WHIP his past 5 starts, which is a big reason why those games have averaged 14.4 runs. Things just tend to get wild when Weaver starts, and I see it again in this matchup of strong offenses.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Houston Astros ML @ St Louis Cardinals (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:45 PM CT on MLB Network
Sometimes you just get a feeling, and this is one of those times. I can’t justify it from a numbers standpoint, market movement, trends, or any other standpoint where I’ll sound intelligent. In fact, a lot of the numbers and matchups favor St Louis in this game. But the Cardinals are still a bad baseball team with reports of serious locker room issues that make me avoid betting on them, so I might as well bet against them. I don’t know, baseball is a wild and high-variance s-show, so sometimes you just get a feeling.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:05 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
The Rangers were sleep-walking for a game and a half of this series against the meek Tigers, but finally woke up late last night. When this offense starts clicking it’s a scary proposition, and they should keep it rolling today against a terrible pitcher. Texas tees off on lefties, and will have a chance to crush Joey Wentz today who owns a 7.48 ERA on the road.
Detroit had their surprising offensive eruption already in this series, and I don’t see them replicating it against Dane Dunning tonight. The Ranger righty has a good history against the Tiger lineup, allowing just a .213 average and .564 OPS to them. I trust Dunning to hold Detroit down while the Ranger bats continue waking up, earning Texas another run line win at home.
MLB (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Rays/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 9 (-115; Odds via DraftKings): 8:40 PM CT on Bally Sports AZ
These teams put up 12 runs yesterday with a Cy Young frontrunner starting for Arizona, so that’s making me see more runs tonight. Scoring is never the problem for Arizona, as the Diamondbacks are a top-5 offense by just about any metric. Things are never easy against Zach Eflin, but his road numbers are a definite area of concern, and a D’backs team averaging 6 runs per game their past 20 should continue to produce.
They’ll need every run they can get to stay competitive with Zach Davies taking the mound tonight. The Arizona righty is essentially throwing batting practice at this point, especially at home where he has a 9.90 ERA and is allowing teams to hit .360 off him. As good as the Arizona offense is, the Tampa offense tops them in every category. They might do the bulk of the work here, but no matter what I’m seeing plenty of scoring in this one.
WNBA (0.25 Unit) Atlanta Dream/Washington Mystics Under 163.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV
I’ve been riding the overs train in the WNBA lately, and seeing totals rise to staggering heights after lots of shootouts. But that’s impacting this number so it’s time to punch back against all that steam. While Atlanta is a fairly high-scoring team with a bad defense, I don’t think they’ll be the ones determining the style of this game.
Washington has been able to control tempo in just about every game this season and drag it down to their preferred slow style. The Mystics have the best defense in the league from a scoring and shooting standpoint, and should hold down an average Dream shooting squad. Washington is 11-2 under this total on the season, and one of those two needed OT to get over. I think this defense clamps down again to stay under the second-highest total they’ve seen all season.
Degenerates
PGA Tour Rocket Mortgage Classic: Thu-Sun on Golf Channel & CBS
There are a lot of elite golfers taking a break this week, so let’s take an opportunity to jump on value with some players who are striking the ball exceptionally well as of late. Unlike last week, this week in Detroit is likely to reward long hitters. We are flipping the script and looking at strokes gained from tee, with wide fairways and much fewer hazards.
To Win:
JT +2000
Rickie Fowler +1300
Sungjae Im +2000
Taylor Moore +6400
Top 20 Finish:
JT +140
Taylor Moore +240
Brian Harman +260
Christian Bezuidenhout +360
Tiny Nick is 1368-1210 ATS (+65.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.