Locks
MLB (0.75 Unit) San Diego Padres/Miami Marlins Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports FL
Two left-handed starters take the mound in this game, and that should make for plenty of opportunities to get runs across. With Blake Snell going for San Diego, I’m seeing his typical road struggles continue here against a Marlins team that’s excellent against lefties. Miami is top-5 in batting average, OPS, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs-created-plus versus left-handed pitching. With Snell being much more generous in allowing baserunners on the road, the Marlins should get lots of runners aboard.
If the Marlins can bring a few of them home, then I think the Padres can take care of the rest of what’s needed for this total. While Braxton Garrett’s poor overall numbers are inflated by one really bad game, he should struggle against this Padres lineup. They have career numbers of a .391 average and 1.156 OPS against Garrett, and are in their better split against a lefty. San Diego has seemed to resolve some of their scoring issues on this road trip, and a potent lineup should do enough damage here to help boost the game over the number.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Reds/Boston Red Sox Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on ESPN+
The league’s best home over team wasted no time in crushing another total last night in their first game off a road trip. The Red Sox are 19-7-1 to the over in Boston, and their past 10 games at Fenway have averaged 12.7 runs. They’re second in overall scoring at home, and their deeper hitting metrics all rank either first or second in the league. I think they put up more big numbers tonight against Luke Weaver, who has poor numbers against the Sox and probably shouldn’t really be a starting pitcher.
But don’t count out Cincinnati here, who should put up plenty of runs themselves. The Reds are in their preferred split against lefty James Paxton, as they’re top-10 or better in just about every metric against lefties. Paxton is still working his way into this season and not pitching deep into games, which leaves a below-average Boston bullpen exposed for late runs by Cincy. With warmer temperatures and a solid wind blowing out to left at Fenway, I see the high-scoring trends continuing tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1310-1149 ATS (+72.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.