Locks
NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams/NY Giants Over 43.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
RIP to the Tommy Cutlets story, but his benching means a much more serviceable offense from the Giants going forward. Tyrod Taylor gets the start today, and he can at least move the ball fairly well as we saw in the latter stages of their game against the Eagles on Monday.
It’s not like Taylor will face a tough defense today, as the Rams are having this overall success thanks to their offense. I think that also continues here against a Giants defense that has mostly been poor all season, and their blitz-heavy scheme should get carved up by Matthew Stafford. With beautiful weather for this one, expect plenty of points to clear this low total.
NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles Team Total Over 30.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Everyone feasts against Arizona, period. This is the worst defense in the league no matter which surface level or deep metric you look at, and they should get shredded again today. The Eagles are in a position where they need to make extra sure their division title is safe, so expect them to pile on the points like they did against a bad defense on Monday. But they might also get pushed by Arizona here, with Kyler Murray expected to be playing. I think that raises the floor of how much they’ll need to score, and gets them over this total in the process.
NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 31.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Speaking of bad defenses that everyone shreds, this might be a hide the women and children game. It’s perfect timing for San Francisco to have this awful Commanders defense on the schedule, and I expect them to take out Monday’s frustrations here. The 49ers offense will not get stalled out by turnovers again facing a Washington defense with the third-fewest interceptions on the season. The Commanders are allowing 34.5 PPG at home, and the only opponent to visit DC and not clear this team total was Arizona in Week 1. With San Fran likely in a foul mood today, expect them to continue that trend in a big way today.
NFL (0.5 Unit) New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I’ll admit that something smells fishy with this line, so I won’t be swinging for the fences on this one. The division title is on the line here, so those raised stakes help to shorten the spread. But this is just the kind of game that Derek Carr never wins, going back throughout his entire career. It’s also not a favorable spot for Dennis Allen who’s always a worthy fade candidate, as he is now 2-7-1 ATS against fellow NFC South opponents.
The Saints are also just not that good this year, it’s really that simple, owning a sub-.500 record despite facing one of the league’s easiest schedules. This is also their first outdoor game since Week 5, an important change for an indoor team. While the Bucs have built this 4-game winning streak against questionable competition, that’s exactly what New Orleans is right now. So I expect Tampa to come away with the win and the division title today.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Falcons/Chicago Bears 1st Half Under 19.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Last week I targeted the over in Chicago because the weather was downright September-like. That’s not the case anymore, as snow and wind have finally arrived to hold down scoring in this one. These teams do a good enough job of holding down scoring on their own as two of the less efficient offenses in the league.
Neither team wants to throw the ball, which will be hampered by the weather anyway. But both run defenses are also strong, which should create a slugfest of ineffective drives. Chicago is also missing several key offensive weapons today, with injuries decimating the receiving options for Justin Fields, forcing the Bears to keep it on the ground. With Atlanta 27th in first-half scoring, I think we see a very boring start to this game.
NFL Sunday Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Tyreek Hill Over 7.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
0.5 Unit – Nico Collins Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rush Attempts (-110)
0.75 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 115.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Darren Waller Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 123.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – D’Andre Swift Over 85.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – James Conner Over 71.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Trey McBride Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Devonta Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chris Olave Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Chris Godwin Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rachaad White Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Taylor Heinicke Under 18.5 Completions (-110)
0.25 Unit – Justin Fields Under 16.5 Completions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Jakobi Meyers Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice 75+ Receiving Yards (+130)
0.5 Unit – Jaren Hall Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Arizona -12.5 @ Stanford (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on PAC12 Network
Arizona was obviously not happy about losing a double-overtime game to FAU last weekend, taking it out on California Friday night. The Wildcats wrap up their smart-school road trip today, and I expect another win by a wide margin. Arizona under Tommy Lloyd is known for blowing out weaker opponents in general, and especially after they’ve had a frustrating loss, so Stanford should be in trouble today.
The Cardinal just won’t be able to compete on the glass or at the stripe, with Arizona flexing their size and ability to get to the free throw line. KenPom has this as a 15-point Wildcats win on account of those factors, and I’ll take advantage of that edge on the number here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1880-1682 ATS (+86.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.