Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

NY Giants @ Washington Commanders -3.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I don’t care how many defensive pieces Washington shipped out of town at the trade deadline. It doesn’t take much to slow down Tommy DeVito without many weapons, and the Commanders are certainly capable of that. DeVito has a solid claim to being the worst quarterback to start a game this season, which is saying something. And with Sam Howell leading the league in passing yards on the other side, the Washington offense will get enough going to provide separation against a truly awful team.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -2: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Detroit’s success against the rest of the NFC North is getting a little ridiculous, covering 11 straight games. But I’m not going to ask them to cover this big number, instead taking advantage of line movement that puts the Lions in a better teaser spot. Justin Fields returning pushed this down from double digits to where I can essentially ask Detroit to just win. Fields can’t help the defense though, which Detroit’s offense should shred. When the Bears allow 21-plus points, Fields is 0-20 straight up, which fits well into this teased number.

NFL (1 Unit) Las Vegas Raiders/Miami Dolphins Over 45.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

It’s nice to have Miami back from their bye week to balance out all the awful offense we’ve see around the league lately. I think they come out red hot from that week off, especially against a defense like this. The Raiders are pretty vulnerable to teams that complete a high percentage of passes, which is exactly the Miami style with those short routes, and their rested receivers should have a lot of success.

But don’t sell Aidan O’Connell short in an offense that has decided to turn it loose after firing Josh McDaniels. The Dolphins have never been anything special defensively, and in the kind of game I see unfolding, this total is nowhere near high enough.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Miami Dolphins First Half Team Total Over 15.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

If the Dolphins come out firing as I expect they will, then this total should be pretty easy to reach. With plenty of practice and preparation for a bad defense, Mike McDaniel should turn the Miami offense loose for plenty of early points.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ Carolina Panthers (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Of course I’m throwing my Cowboys in here after seeing them roll the awful Giants last week. This Dallas team is a bully, beating up on the weaklings around the league, and they’ve had plenty of success against bad teams for years. With Dak Prescott starting, the Cowboys are 29-13-2 ATS against teams with losing records. Dak is also 10-3 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more in road games. Carolina just can’t keep pace if the Cowboys have their foot on the gas like they have in recent weeks, especially since Dallas should look to build an insurmountable early lead with a Thanksgiving game upcoming. It’s an awkward number to lay, but I’ll trust one of the best ATS teams the past few seasons to get it done.

NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 27.5 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on FOX

Oh yeah, that’s what the 49ers offense is supposed to look like. It was easy to forget that this team was a juggernaut before it dropped three strange games in a row and dealt with key injuries. But they got things back on track last week, crossing the 30-point mark as they’ve done in every game except that short losing streak. Now they’re back at home where they’ve been even more dangerous, and face a Bucs defense that has been banged up lately. With San Fran looking to keep making up for that strange losing streak, I see them showing no mercy and easily putting the necessary 4 touchdowns on the board.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via Fanduel)

1 Unit – Bryce Young Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Aidan O’Connell Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Tyreek Hill Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Devin Singletary Over 89.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Will Levis Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.75 Unit – Javonte Williams Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Josh Dobbs Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-110)

0.75 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards

0.5 Unit – David Montgomery Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jaylen Warren Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Rachaad White Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Breece Hall Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1650-1466 ATS (+82.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.