Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens -0.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Something tells me the Ravens roll in this game given the level they’re playing at right now, owning the league’s best ATS plus/minus and margin of victory. But it’s still a divisional game, with a low total, and could turn into a slugfest. Plus, Lamar Jackson just isn’t good as a sizable favorite, even at home. So I just want to ask Baltimore to win this game, which I think they can do on the strength of the overall team. As good as Cleveland’s defense is, it can be run on, and the excellent Ravens rushing attack should give them the edge they need.

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals PK: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

What CJ Stroud did last week was incredible, no doubt about it, but let’s maybe calm down on all the hype. The week before shredding a decimated Bucs secondary he struggled against the Carolina defense, and today he faces a very strong Bengals defense. Cincinnati will need their defense given the injuries to their star wide receivers, but that side of the ball has been outstanding for 4 straight weeks. Add in that you don’t need to throw to beat Houston’s defense, and I’ll take Joe Burrow here who’s 16-4 straight up in his past 20 games as a favorite to just get the win.

NFL (1 Unit) Green Bay Packers/Pittsburgh Steelers First Half Under 19.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

These teams simply do not score early. Especially the Packers who are dead last in first half scoring at 4.5 points per game, but don’t forget about Pittsburgh who’s fifth-lowest in the NFL at 6.9 first half points per game. Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett have shockingly similar passing stats in first halves, with both struggling early before generally turning it on late. These are both extremely slow-paced offenses as well, so given that they’re a combined 11-4-1 to the first half under this season, I’ll go under here and expect another ugly start.

NFL (1 Unit) Detroit Lions -2.5 @ LA Chargers (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

I really think this is a mismatch on the field, as well as a situation that sets up very favorably for Detroit. We just saw the Chargers on Monday Night Football, on the other side of the country, so this short week with lots of travel is tough. Compare that to the Lions who are off the bye and have had plenty of time to prepare for carving up the LA defense. Jared Goff should have plenty of time to do that against a poor pass rush and the most forgiving pass defense in the league. This might turn into a bit of a shootout, but I’ll take the ATS wagon that is the Lions given all their advantages.

NFL (1 Unit) NY Giants @ Dallas Cowboys -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on FOX

The biggest mismatch of the week also comes with the biggest spread we’ve seen this season. I think the full-game number is justified, but I’d rather look to the first half here for an official play. The Cowboys love to run out bad teams at home, especially in divisional games, and they already had a 26-0 halftime lead over the Giants in the season opener.

Substitute Tommy DeVito for Daniel Jones today, with the Cowboys looking for redemption off a frustrating loss, and things should get out of hand early. In their four blowouts of awful teams, Dallas has led by an average 20.8 point margin at halftime, so I’ll lay this big early number.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 27.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

It’s probably not necessary for Dallas to reach this team total and still cover the massive 17.5 point spread today, that’s how little respect I have for the Giants with DeVito. But this is too good of a number to pass up, sitting on the right side of the four-touchdown threshold. Those four blowouts I mentioned also saw the Cowboys average 37.8 PPG, and with their offense looking extremely sharp, I trust them to hang another big number today.

NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Rachaad White Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – DeAndre Hopkins Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 91.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 20.5 Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)

0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Keaton Mitchell Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Amon-Ra St Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jared Goff Over 24.5 Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jared Goff Over 277.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 24.5 Completions (-110)

0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 77.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dallas Defense/Special Teams Touchdown (+315)

1 Unit – Sam Howell Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1613-1443 ATS (+76.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.