Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 219.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The Wolves have been a little tough to figure out so far this season aside from some results that are eerily similar to last year. The Nuggets are not tough to figure out though, they’re good, and they’re scoring at will on everyone. Denver is once again shooting the lights out, ranking first in overall shooting percentage and effective field goal rate on the young season.
The Minnesota defense is overrated with skewed metrics thanks to a couple strange games, but the loss in Atlanta showed this defense is vulnerable. The offense for the Wolves has shown some improvement every game, so I’ll count on that and the elite Denver shooting to carry this one over the total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
I don’t want to root against my favorite basketball team, but they leave me no choice. Until proven otherwise, there’s a vast difference between these teams that’s maybe most evident in their character. The Nuggets are champions with the ability and experience to close games. The Wolves on the other hand have already blown late leads twice this year, and I don’t think they can shut down the champs tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
At least Ant makes Wolves basketball enjoyable. He’s gone 2-1 over this prop on the season, averaging 37.3 on it, which is good enough for me. The one time he went under was in the blowout of Miami where he played less minutes and the game script was thrown off. I have to expect him to step up tonight with the champs in town and turn in an excellent stat line.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks -5 @ Toronto Raptors (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
Toronto has officially collapsed after sneaking out their opener against the Wolves. The biggest issue for them is scoring, ranking dead last in the league for points and offensive rating, plus bottom-3 for most shooting metrics. That makes for a big disparity against a team like Milwaukee who can be elite offensively when fully healthy, which they should be tonight. The Raptors are also missing some key frontcourt pieces here, so I think the Bucks dominate inside and out for a comfortable win.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Charlotte Hornets/Houston Rockets Over 221.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
Plain and simple, the Houston offense has not been pretty so far. But they’ve faced some tough defensive teams that skew their numbers, and I think their game against a poor San Antonio defense showed they aren’t incompetent. This team has scorers, so maybe what they need is a fast-paced game like the one they’ll get tonight from the league’s most up-tempo team. Charlotte has also allowed at least 110 points in every game, and those have all been at home. Taking their fast pace and weak defense on the road against a Rockets team hungry for a win should turn this into an up-tempo and high-scoring affair.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1568-1414 ATS (+71.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.